GDX- Miners Reaching Lower?
A break of the inclining support originating from Jan 2016 may trigger some selling pressure as it would complete a Head and Shoulders pattern. This may be an inverse expression to the IHS forming on the DXY. I'm about 70/30 convinced of this right now. The attached link makes a strong dollar case.
The average distance from head to neck results in a projected 24$ target, with the very base support above 22. If this played out similar to other sell-offs, we could expect the downward pressure to reach 24+ and ease before turning between Feb 1st and Apr 19th. This could be an algo/leverage driven flash sale so we might expect equal violence to the upside later in the summer/fall. (15% chance?)
What is more probably more likely is that the chart will bounce in the 28 range before deciding to follow-through to 24 or, consolidate and ultimately resume an up-trend. (85% chance)
Whether this coincides with a broader market decline remains to be seen, though my suspicions tell me that this week (Jan 25th-30th) will be very telling.
The average distance from head to neck results in a projected 24$ target, with the very base support above 22. If this played out similar to other sell-offs, we could expect the downward pressure to reach 24+ and ease before turning between Feb 1st and Apr 19th. This could be an algo/leverage driven flash sale so we might expect equal violence to the upside later in the summer/fall. (15% chance?)
What is more probably more likely is that the chart will bounce in the 28 range before deciding to follow-through to 24 or, consolidate and ultimately resume an up-trend. (85% chance)
Whether this coincides with a broader market decline remains to be seen, though my suspicions tell me that this week (Jan 25th-30th) will be very telling.
Note
This coming trading week will be crunch time, opening on the 1st we may hold (with renewed silver interest spilling across), though a wider market decline and strengthening DXY may continue to put downward pressure on the miners. Plan for either eventuality.Note
Decisive rejection of what seemed so certain? Looks like a round-the-apex rejection.. Looking up for the GDX. My bias says it is unlikely to fulfill the projected downside. Both scenarios now fully in play
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.