DAX - can't go down, have to go up again?

May 5, 2023

This consolidation has had multiple failed attempts to break out to the upside, but also now failed on the downside, again. Until there's a meaningful break to the downside the trend is still up. ATH is nearby which can act like a magnet. Also, news is very bearish, which can mean small players are swayed into going short which just creates order flow for size players to buy into for the next leg up. Size selling on the other hand will push down the range and at this late stage, probably break down further. If we do make the high of the range, I'd favour a next leg up to the ATH.

May 10, 2023

Comment

Stop moved to BE. Following CPI market pushed up. If that's to clean out weak shorts and the market eventually moves down, this could be a sell-off to the bottom of the range so you want to be out of longs without losing money. If we keep going up, a breakout is more likely. It's also possible the market whipsaws for longer to clean out everyone before we go. However, you don't want to lose on the whipsaw either, so preserve capital. There will always be another setup.

May 10, 2023

Trade closed: stop reached

BE. These long ranges are frustrating, make sure to preserve capital until the market shows it's hand.