A 3-wave rally on the DAX stalls at 13k ahead of ECB

Sep 8, 2022

The ECB (European Central Bank) raised rates in July for the first time in a decade. Today they will raise rates again, and the question is whether it will be by 50 or 75bp. With the Europe likely headed for double digit inflation then the case for a hawkish 75bp hike there. And like they did in the July meeting, ECB policy makers are also likely to express concerns over euro weakness – given it has since traded below parity since. But with Europe staring down the barrel of a recession, aggressive tightening won’t help fix high energy prices. So the ECB is caught between a rock and a hard place but on balance I suspect a 75b is on the cards (as it provided more room to cut when the inevitable recession makes its entry).

• The 4-hour chart shows the DAX has risen to the 13,000 resistance zone ahead of today’s ECB meeting.
  
• It has also formed in three waves which suggests it is corrective, so we’re on the lookout for a potential swing high to signal the end of the correction.
  
• Also note that the 100-bar EMA and weekly R1 pivot are in the resistance zone, which adds extra weight to the area.
  
• Should we see evidence of a swing high then the initial downside target becomes 12,800 – near the weekly pivot point and trend support, a break beneath which brings 12,600 into focus.
  
• The bias remains bearish beneath the 13,056 high – a break above which invalidates the 100-bar eMA and assumes bullish continuation.
  

Sep 12, 2022

Trade closed: target reached

The initial target of 12,800 was reached as the resistance area held. However, momentum turned higher around the 12,700 low before the second target was reached, and a break above 13,056 invalidated the bearish bias. With sentiment remaining favourable for global equities we'd seek bullish setups above 13,000.