GWPH accumulation or distribution?

Jan 11, 2020

A clear uptrend, these past few weeks, it looks like the stock has bottomed and is currently waiting for new momentum. Still extremely overvalued at current market cap of 3B. The company shows excellent growth, however, and with the EU possibly opening up for marketing of Epidiolex this year, we could see growth sustained or even increased.

I'm currently hoping for a gap fill, but we seem to have a few very clear ranges and resistance in play. Still, I want to keep an eye on SPY, as the broader markets appear to be headed for a hard correction, which would likely drag GWPH down to retest the lows of around $95.

I'm thinking to go long if it breaks the current rising wedge bullish. If it doesn't, I'll stay on the sidelines...

Jan 13, 2020

Note

Earnings just confirmed that GWPH is trading at 30x 2019 revenue. Revenue is expected to increase with just over 50% for 2020, which is a fantastic prospect. That would put revenue at roughly 450M. With the current market cap of 33B, it would be trading at about 7 times forward revenue. That is fundamentally a reasonably value, with exceptional growth potential in the case of GWPH. There are many catalysts ahead.

I would not be surprised to see that the current resuts are already priced in, however. So I am expecting a retest of the lower levels, where we hopefully will see continued accumulation.

Levels on watch. If I like what I see in terms of volume, I may start to accumulate a position myself.