NSE ITC - Long Squeeze to carry it to 400+ if NIFTY holds

Mar 7, 2023

ITC continues to stay under LTH, building tremendous energy. Bounced back off 370 odd when market sold off
Weekly chart breaking through consolidation
Target - 420-440, Stop Loss at 370
Calls - IV at 17% means you only need 3% move in 52 days (till April exp) to break even. Buy ITM Calls 380, Sell 420
Risk - Nifty collapses below 17300 - all bets are off then

Mar 12, 2023

Note

NSE ITC continues to hold the bullish position. However the market maybe quite weak in the next week or so. However there could be some switch into ITC from banks too. Keep the long - with a stop at 375

Mar 13, 2023

Trade active

Continue to hold, although ITC showed some weakness and sold off 1% when the nifty hit 17150 today. This is not surprising as when nifty is sold, the key constituents are also sold in proportion - and it is tough for the main leaders to resist.
Continue to hold as only about 1% below the entry and still away from the stop.

Mar 14, 2023

Note

ITC should bounce sharply if the market rallies off to 17300 (which is the next resistance for the market) - however if the price action in ITC remains weak then will exit this trade on friday. So next few days are crucial to watch what buyers in ITC do

Mar 15, 2023

Note

Turning into a bit of a pain trade with the market correcting so heavily. HLL totally collapsed yesterday, but ITC is going alright and holding its own. If the pattern breaks down will need to cut this at the decisive break of 380 - however it continues to bounce from there
Today on Mar 16 expect to see heavy selling in the Banks esp PSU, Reliance / ONGC (as oil price has collapsed below $70) and then rotation back into consumer staples. Thats the theory - lets see how that goes

Mar 17, 2023

Trade closed: stop reached

Closing out at a loss - yup bad things happen sometimes

Mar 20, 2023

Note

Still looks good on the weekly charts - I have some ITC in cash that i will hang onto it. Surprisingly it bounced back from 370 sharply - which is a positive sign.