ITC wave analysis, trendlines, and targets if breakout is given

Jul 10

A. Elliot wave - Seems to be in wave (iii of wave 5)
This script seems to be in the last leg 5 of Elliot wave after spending good amount of time in wave 4 (minor correction phase), if so wave 5 need to be smaller than wave 3 length (290 points)
a. It can be of length similar to wave 1 ~= 140 points target of ~540 OR
b. it can be 1.618 retracement of wave 4 ~=160 points so target of ~=560 OR
c. If it moves above 560 area then will have to wait till top is formed to assess the wave formation again.

For this first it need to cross over 461 on weekly closing basis, then 478 and 500, 526, 538, 560 can be the targets, trailing stop loss strategy must be followed strictly.

B. 3 While Soldiers Pattern on weekly basis in formation :
3 white soldiers formation on weekly basis is likely to form end of this week if stock holds above 450 then it will be a healthy one.

C. Trading near long time resistance trendline:
Closing above 461 will be icing on the cake as that will be above resistance trendline drawn in yellow.
A trade must be executed above the trendline only as that can be the short covering area from where stock can see a fast up move.

*** Please note this is not a trade advice but just chart analysis study shared for educational purpose, one must do his/her own analysis before taking any trade.

Jul 11

Note

The stock has reached to the maximum pain area, if it crosses above 461 tomorrow then the trade will become active. There might be good selling pressure as it is resistance trendline area so there can be a possible dip towards 445 sooner or later so 444 can be the conservative stop loss, lenient stop loss can be 436.

Jul 12

Note

As commented yesterday after reaching to 462 day high it got selling pressure and came down to to 456 and still looking weak. This is good in a way because after pull down when stock will be above trendline again that will have better strength.
Let's wait for which pull down to get corrected and see the stock above resistance line again to take the trade.
Till then trade is not active.

Jul 12

Note

As predicted the stock is struggling to cross the resistance line but closed very near to it which shows strength in the script. Hope next week it will come back stronger to cross this hurdle, that will make the trade active.

Jul 15

Trade active

Hourly close above 463 has come and hence the trade is active now, with a stop loss of 445, a RR of 1:2 targeting LTH (497) only for now, but stop loss trail to be used if stocks shows some good strength.

Jul 15

Note

TUG of war between bears and bulls in the range of 463-464, seems above 464 a short covering can pull the stock up but so far bears not let it move beyond the range.

Jul 18

Note

BINGO: The stock is moving up steadily and has closed above 470,first target 478 ON

Jul 19

Note

Going well, touched 575, keep trailing stop loss is important.

Jul 19

Note

478 is done.

Jul 22

Note

Need to get support from the trendline and bounce back and continue uptrend, 4hourly close below trendline can fail the call.

Jul 23

Note

It bounced back and went up to 489+, few more points left to meet first target 500. This is an important one to break as it will open the new targets above LTH.

Jul 23

Note

Bingo : Just checked the day high was 497+, 2 points less than LTH , the 2nd target :)

It moves beyond 500 then fib levels 526 and 537 is the area to target as per wave 3 in green

Jul 24

Trade active

Bingo: cross 2nd target of LTH and made new LTH 510, new targets are open now and Jefferies has given a buy call after taking it on lower levels :)

Jul 26

Note

Weekly close above LTH(500) is a very good sign, monthly close after 3 days will support it more to move toward 560.

Jul 31

Note

Everything went well except monthly closing which is below LTH (499) and hence need to see the action post quarterly results.
May be price action need to be considered to make any entry or if a day closing above 510 takes place then buy on dips for higher targets can be the strategy.
Those who already have positions must trail stop loss to minimize the losses if there is negative reaction post results.
Overall tone is still bullish.

Aug 7

Note

It seems the wave 3 in green which is supposed to form 12345 pattern has completed 1234 waves if it does not break recent low of 480, with that it must be in last wave 5 which must close above recent LTH(410) up to the fib level 528. If it breaks below 480 means correction is not over yet and we will have to wait.

Aug 8

Note

close above 502-504 is needed

Aug 27

Note

Though so far the stocks has moved as per waves drawn but it is really testing the patience to the next level, it almost came near to LTH 3 times but failed every time and now 3 days left with monthly closing so it need to close above 511.
I think it might make a down move below 497 and then make a fast recovery.

Aug 28

Note

As predicted it made a low of 496.75 and trying to move up again.

Sep 2

Note

Finally NEW LTH made, from mere it might start a new run towards next target of 526 and then 550.

Sep 14

Note

520 touched, the stock is slow but steady and has almost reached to the fib level 526, 60+ or 13% percentage of run since the call given.

Sep 26

Note

522 has come today, precisely also meeting the timelines shown on the charts. Might see some profit booking around 526 or 537 level back till 500 level in the form of minor correction wave 4 before we see another upside move in the form of wave 5.

Oct 3

Note

528 was the high and then stock started to get corrected, it might go till 500 before moving up again.