Kda structure brake or bulltrap

With the recent btc pump thanks to Russia being banned from swift and Ukraine asking for crypto donation this was very bullish for crypto in general.
Btc hit the 44k ceiling, and kda hit 8$. Might continu to 10$. I didnt trade this move.

With this move, kda is currently breaking the weekly structure to the upside , possably invalidating the 5 impuls wave down, aiming for 10$ resistance (point D)(200mma), or even 16$ with a bat formation (point B).

But... i would remain very cautious.

Fundamentals:

1st: btc hit its 44k ceiling, so 8$ might be the top.
2th: main reason : sp500 is puting in a lower high, still under the 200mma daily, wich is very bearish for stocks, all these sanctions will not help, and its ready to make a huge dip, capitulation style wich will hurt crypto. Im still waiting for that HUGE capitulation like in december to 25 28k btc 3200 sp500, etc.
3th: fed in 2 weeks, huge event, huge volume. Buy the news (only 1 basepoint), sell the fact. I expect selloff.
4th: it could be a fake out, bull trap. Its possible its still a lower high, smaller wave 4, so we still have a wave 5 to do, usually the biggest.
5th: btc is at same level , but kda is still alot lower. The move is not very powerfull Except luna, all alts are not bought up as much as btc. Its not altseason yet. The king btc moves first, and right now, itS neurral.

While it might also be possible that kda changed from its faling wedge to a wickoff accumulation triangle between 5$ and 10$.(pink lines) This would be first signs of bulls fighting, we will have to wait and see to confirm this new structure

While many are aiming 20$ in a month, the dirction is still unclear and times uncertain. This could be a bulltrap. Enter cautiously.

I dont think we will hit our tp3 anymore, but tp2 at 4$ seems a very attactive place to load up.
I dont think the bottem is in yet as long as sp500 has not bottemed. Good daytrade times, but not to buy and forget. Im aiming 50% lower than we are now.

Don't fomo in.