Kalyani Steels Q1 down. More pain possible ahead!!!
Kalyani Steels Q1 results down double digits. Weakness shown in chart since July 15. Till now 800 held as strong support. Not sure if that support will hold further. If 800 gets broken, ~18% fall to 650. Quarterly chart RSI is still ok. But monthly, weekly chart RSI are down. Double top around 1074-1083. Head and Shoulder pattern is forming. An anomaly which I already observed during this market, bearish H&S pattern gets negated.
Nifty Metals W. After reaching the cup target and then Fib target on May 21, it consolidated until Jul 8 '24 and then broke down. This month Price broken down from parallel channel as well.
Kalyani Steels had a max drawdown of ~44% twice and 40% 5 times and ~20-25% for around 7 times since Feb '22. Recent drawdown from ATH is 26%. If KSL were to break 800, then as mentioned earlier there would be a 18% fall (max drawdown 44 - recent drawdown from ATH 26 = further prediction 18) where next support is at 650.
Since my Avg price is 257 that too after exiting initial investment + 20% profit, I made my decision to stay put with the rest of the units. Apart from technical, fundamental reason for staying put is due to expansion plan at Odisha of 5124cr with 10K TPA capacity for aero & defense components
Nifty Metals W. After reaching the cup target and then Fib target on May 21, it consolidated until Jul 8 '24 and then broke down. This month Price broken down from parallel channel as well.
Kalyani Steels had a max drawdown of ~44% twice and 40% 5 times and ~20-25% for around 7 times since Feb '22. Recent drawdown from ATH is 26%. If KSL were to break 800, then as mentioned earlier there would be a 18% fall (max drawdown 44 - recent drawdown from ATH 26 = further prediction 18) where next support is at 650.
Since my Avg price is 257 that too after exiting initial investment + 20% profit, I made my decision to stay put with the rest of the units. Apart from technical, fundamental reason for staying put is due to expansion plan at Odisha of 5124cr with 10K TPA capacity for aero & defense components
Note
Kalyani Steels bullish reversal seen in daily chart. Weekly close above 805 would be nice.
1. Govt extended anti-subsidy duty preventing cheaper imports which would benefit local players
2. Iron ore price has fallen which is 21.2% raw material of KSL
Note
Green steel is steel produced using sustainable and environmentally friendly methods to reduce its carbon footprint and impact on the climate by reduction in CO2 carbon footprint. Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi) have set targets ranging from 0.05 to 0.4 tons of CO2 per ton of steel. Kalyani Steels is the largest manufacturer of green steel and the only producer as well & export large qtys of auto components to Europe. KSL is within the target level 0.4 tons (400kg) of CO2. India is planning to launch a national green steel mission by December 2024 to boost sustainable production.
youtube.com/watch?v=4HX3rnb6CRg
Trade active
Fantastic breakout with volumeTrade closed: target reached
But this may be just the beginning. Will continue holding.Note
Kalyani Steels technicals and demand looking strong whereas cheap imports by rising duties, rupee depreciation, raw material iron ore spiked significantly pressures margins & revenue growth. Company has to rise 3-4% prices to offset this challenge which is also hurdle due to mkt dynamics. Following application might give some relaxation
cnbctv18.com/economy/dgtr-initiates-safeguard-probe-on-imports-of-non-alloy-and-alloy-steel-flat-products-19527616.htm
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