Litecoin Goes 50% Since My Bottom Call + Crypto Breakout

Jan 16, 2020

Here's an update on Litecoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market. My views since August have remained pretty consistent, in the sense that I did not expect Dominance to make a new high, and I also expected the $40-50 zone for LTC to hold. Bitcoin's little cousin dropped briefly below $40, but was bought fairly aggressively. My call was for Litecoin to head up at least towards the 200d MA (blue) once $45 was broken. It currently lies close to the $66 psychological level. I think there's a decent chance we get up there if $60 is breached again. I think the market is due for a reset soon, but the question is...does it occur after Litecoin hits the 200d MA? Or does it happen right now, sending us to retest the 100d MA (green), around $50? These are the pink and yellow scenarios respectively. Currently, we may be a little overextended, so I would be surprised if we continued straight up even past $66 without a bigger correction/consolidation.

Either way, I expect Litecoin to potentially head up near the $100 level, perhaps around $93, before the next longer consolidation period. I'd really like to see it get comfortably back above the 200d MA. The same goes for Bitcoin and the rest of the market. Speaking of which, the total market cap (left) is trying to break above the 200d MA right now.

The crypto total market cap is comfortably back above the extremely pivotal 230B level. I've talked about this level over and over again in my posts. You can see here why it's so important if you zoom out on the left-hand chart. This is a very strong signal. In order for the crypto market co continue looking bullish, even if we correct briefly towards the 220B level, I'd really like to see us get back above 230B rather quickly for continuation. The next resistance would be at the $270 Billion level. After that, we can test the June 2019 highs.

On the bearish side, we don't want to see Litecoin head back into the bearish channel (pink), as that would indicate a failed breakout and a likely markdown in price to come.

Previous LTC analysis where I called the recent bottom:

Bitcoin analysis where I also called the recent potential bottom, based on the bullish weekly MA cross:

Analysis where I suggested altcoin ratios and prices needed to move up soon, to prevent BTC dominance from reaching 80%:

This is not financial advice! This is for my personal record, and for speculation + education only. When I get something right, I do sometimes like to gloat, but analysis isn't about getting it right. It's about the process of figuring out what's going on. If I get it right, it just adds a little something to it. If I get it wrong, well that's that! I'll also add that I'm about to become a lot more busy. My updates may become a bit more sparse, since I'll be working closer to 40 hours a week.

-Victor Cobra

Jan 19, 2020

Note

LTC got VERY close to the 200d MA. Unfortunately, sellers front-run the resistance. It's possible we test it soon, but equally possible that LTC experiences a short term bigger pullback. Daily oscillators still have room for correction/consolidation. Still, this retrace is healthy so far.

Jan 19, 2020

Note

The total crypto market cap dipped below 230B briefly but has been bought up. this is what I was hoping for, in terms of the bullish scenario.

Jan 24, 2020

Note

So far, LTC seems to be following something like the yellow scenario. It dropped towards the $50 level, which I was expecting at some point with this analysis. Now we have to see if it continues to hold for re-accumulation to eventually tackle the 200d MA.