$MPW At A Major Support level

Jan 14

Using Elliot wave I believe I have found a true gem. I will update this trade accordingly.

Jan 14

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Jan 14

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My Entry is 3.76

Jan 14

Trade active

Jan 14

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First TP: 4.32
Second TP: 4.75
Third TP: 5.18

Medical Properties Trust (MPW) has recently experienced a significant decline in its stock price, dropping over 80% from its 2022 high. This downturn is attributed to tenant issues, rising interest rates, debt maturities, and substantial short selling. In response, the company reduced its quarterly dividend twice, from $0.29 to $0.15, and then to $0.08 in the most recent quarter, due to restrictions from loan covenants.

Despite these challenges, there are indications that the worst may be over for MPW. The current dividend is well-covered, and the company has demonstrated an ability to generate liquidity, with $2.5 billion raised year-to-date, aiding in debt reduction. Additionally, the Steward bankruptcy proceedings are progressing, with MPW reaching a deal to take charge of the hospitals, pending court approval. A decline in the 10-year treasury yield and potential upcoming rate cuts could further assist MPW in refinancing existing debts, facilitating asset sales, and improving tenant operational margins.

The stock has also seen a recent surge, climbing 33.9% over the past month, outperforming its industry and the S&P 500 composite. This rally is partly due to a recent interest rate cut and an agreement with Steward Health Care System, which reinstates MPW's control over its real estate and enables the immediate transition of operations at 15 hospitals. Furthermore, MPW has executed more than $2.5 billion in liquidity transactions from the beginning of the year through August 6, 2024, strengthening its balance sheet and substantially clearing debt maturities scheduled for 2024.

However, it's important to note that MPW faces operator concentration risk, and any adverse developments with these operators could impact its financial condition. Additionally, the company recently reduced its quarterly cash dividend by 46.7% to better align with its cash flow profile following asset divestitures.

Given these factors, while there are positive developments, potential investors should carefully consider the associated risks and monitor the company's progress in addressing its challenges before making a long-term investment decision.

Jan 14

Trade closed: target reached

Jan 14

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Ignore that target is still far far away.

We need to make a higher high here.

Jan 17

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still hanging out around the previous high

Jan 26

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Jan 26

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blast off. :)

Jan 30

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looking to test 5.50 :)

Feb 7

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Debating on taking profits here but I wanna see one last push to the $5 region

Feb 10

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still waiting on that push

Feb 13

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I'm out with profit. Letting 20% ride. :)

Feb 13

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33% btw

Feb 18

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WE HIT 5.10 TODAY!

Feb 18

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I have like 10 shares left just letting it ride until it hits my trailing stop. Good Trades!

Feb 18

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2 days ago

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If you caught this move then good looks. I had a limit sell set at 5.90 and it hit. I am fully out.