Short

wave (4) is under way ?

By wsbza

Updated

my target area is near the lower yellow dash channel line

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short-term target for wave iii or c

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idealised possible wave (4) patterns

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flat c or running triangle c ?

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5880 is the level to keep bull alive, preferred count in white, alter in yellow

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possible ending diagonal for alter count

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look at the big picture again

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the ending diagonal chart might work, took a small short with tight stop

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still going

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Trade active

took a short with a stop against recent high

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could be a very small degree c wave, also could be the start of a much larger degree decline

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Since we have an extended wave 3, I would expect a shallow wave 4 pull back, possibly around 23.6% of wave 3 at 6362, this is also near the end of wave (iv) of blue wave {5} of yellow wave 3.
An immediate push above the recent high of 7036 would probably argue the extended wave 3 is still unfolding.

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looks like a 5-waves decline is at its later stage
If this 5-waves is A then we should expect a B wave rally
if this 5-waves is a larger degree 1) then we should also expect wave 2) bounce

took some profit and moved my stop to breakeven for the remaining positions
A corrective rally may offer more chances to dance with bears

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yellow count suggests another modest push to complete wave v of (c) of {b}
pink count suggests (w)-(x)-(y) for {b} is done

the key level is 6937, a sharp decline below this would signal further downside potential

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if it turns out to be a triangle wave 4, we can assume the wave count like this

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potential reversal to the upside

Trade active

short-term buy for the upside

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we still cannot rule out the possibility of another wave c decline in the short-term
protective stop to break-even point

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I am still inclined towards a triangle wave 4

Trade closed manually

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structural support at 6292

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break above 7005 would suggest bullish {i }-{ii}-(i )(ii) scenario

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big picture

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we can raise our key support to blue wave (ii) low at 6819

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raise key support level to wave (i) high at 7005 as blue wave (iv) correction (if happens) should not breach this level
short-term blue wave (iii) target at 7579 which is the 1.618 extension level

also note grey wave iii has traveled 2.618 times the length of grey wave i

ALTERNATIVE Count
- blue wave (i) = red wave {iii}, blue wave (ii) = red wave {iv}
- blue wave (i) = wave c of red wave {i} of an ending diagonal
- blue wave (i) = wave w of red wave {i} of an ending diagonal

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The short-term pattern remains bullish
recent decline from 7227 to 7071 was in 3 waves, looks like wave iv of (iii) is in place, or at least sub wave a of iv of (iii) is done

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- wave iv has retraced within 38%-50% range
- price briefly touched i-ii-iii trend channel then it bounced impulsively
- we can also use ii-iii-iv trend channel to project the end of wave v of (iii)

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is wave 5 in place?
Bullish count in blue
Bearish count in red

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I am inclined towards this bullish count

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alt count if wave 4 is not a triangle

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wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

Email：info@ewc.space

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