Nifty - Monday

Nov 6, 2022

I've marked the zones.

The same question as Friday -- "Will Nifty continue trending up or take a pause to gain momentum before trending up?"

Everyone is suggesting to go long citing break-out, and predicting ATH - that's what makes me a bit cautious. Nifty can reverse at any of the levels I mentioned.

Another point I mentioned in my last post -- "PCR is below 1, even though Nifty trended up. Why weren't puts sold in crazy quantities if they were sure of Nifty trending up?"

For Monday, expecting Nifty to open in Green Zone. Consider booking partial profits at each of the resistance levels I marked.

Tuesday is a holiday, so only 3 more trading days for this week's options. I would avoid taking overnight positions.

Contrarian view - The index may fill the gap between 17838-17900, and trend up again.

This are just my views, and neither a prediction nor a recommendation. Try keeping a stop loss.

Good luck!

Nov 7, 2022

Note

Opened in Green Zone, and entered Grey zone.

They're selling more calls than puts now..is the index falling back to gain momentum?

Nov 7, 2022

Note

Few closing thoughts:

We had a 'Dragon-Fly Doji' today.

18200 calls were sold in abundance in the morning, by the end of the day many of them are squared off

18000 puts has the highest OI suggesting a support for now followed by 18200, which has the highest PUTs addition. So, watch for the support moving to 18200 if it continues on Wednesday

PCR < 1 - watch if it improves on Wednesday

It seems everything seems to have fallen in place for the index to rise in the next couple of days. At the same time, expect the unexpected.

Nov 9, 2022

Note

Will provide updates here only.

18300 - lots of calls are sold for this strike. So, expiry is expected below it.

18200 - start of the day, we observed puts being sold enthusiastically, too early to call it, but it for now observing
----- more calls are being sold
----- put OI remaining steady, and not getting squared off

This is the strike to track for now.

Nov 9, 2022

Note

Also, nifty's will be testing the next support to 18164.

Nov 9, 2022

Note

Comment: Update at 11.:45

Staring contest still going on....

18200 put sellers aren't blinking yet
18200 call sellers aren't slowing down yet

both will win if nifty expires around 18200. but that's for tomorrow right.

Nov 9, 2022

Note

3 hour update:

18200 call writers took a pause - OI numbers are steady now
18200 put OI is steady from a long time.

Suggest shorters to be a bit careful now. I will update here if it's ok to double down or book profits.

Nov 9, 2022

Note

1:45 update: CMP: 18191

Time to short.

SL: 18211.
Targets: 17168, 18150, 18136, 18108.

Nov 9, 2022

Note

Hold your shorts. 18168/ 18150 coming. (17168 was a typo in earlier update)

Nov 9, 2022

Note

Both targets done. Will update.

Nov 9, 2022

Note

I see Nifty going below 18100. Keep SL as 18142.

Nov 9, 2022

Trade closed: stop reached

Nov 9, 2022

Note

Closing Thoughts:

1.
18200 put sellers finally covered their shorts.

Highest PUT OI - 18200 / 18300. For tomorrow avoid buying 18200 + calls
Highest Call OI - 18000 (relatively lower OI)

There will be changes to these levels and new strikes may act as support / resistance tomorrow.

2.
Track the impact of US Mid-term elections on US Indices. Just for sentiment reasons and not that important. These impacts do wear over time, but since tomorrow is expiry, they may provide a very short-term direction.

3.
If I've to predict now, expecting a gap-down opening tomorrow. And almost sure Nifty will be trading below 18100 for some time tomorrow (easy guess)

4.
My long-term view is bullish. Index is expected to touch 18500 + levels this month. But we may get to enter at lower levels in the next couple of days. If you're into futures and don't trade options, you can buy Futures anytime Tomorrow/Friday, and keep SL as 17880.

5
Expiry => Volatility