NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The past week saw the Index hitting the wall around 17770 and reacted sharply. The Global risk perception added to the sharp fall. Though the Index made a higher high and higher low, there seems no clear direction with alternating sharp moves.

Weekly charts suggest that

• The index moved in a range of 475 points viz. between 17324 and 17799
  The oscillators of different time frames are showing mixed signals
  Global Risk perception has tilted towards highly uncertain and negative
  
  

Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
*index may find supports at 17250,17140,17035 and the index could face resistances at, 17450, 17570, 16660, 17770, 17860
Expected to remain in the range of 17110-17770 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk

Additional interesting observations
The region between 17540 and 17770 is a slippery turf and known for sharp moves on either side and has been proved again during the past week
The Index may find stiff resistance at 17840
There had been multiple Gaps created during the up move
17570-17400(Created last week)
17826-17755
17320-17430 Filled
16650-16770(Far away for now)
16360-16560 (These are risk zones for sharp moves)

Final Note

• The following observations made in the previous blog might get negated if we see a daily close below 17200
  We have seen bearish candles consecutively for three months between Jan to Mar20(pandemic driven penetrating the lower BB), Apr 22 to June 22 we are witnessing similar move from Dec22 to Feb23 taking the index closer to the Mid BB.
  Though there has been a huge gap down opening and sharp sell-off on Friday, the pullback has resulted in a hammer candle. This requires confirmation
  As noted in the previous Blogs, it is observed from the daily charts that the Index is moving in a downward sloping channel with base support at 17270 and top at 17930. Till either of this is breached we may see a consolidation
  Most likely scenario could be a range of 17250-17770
  We need to see a daily close above 17840 for further gains towards 18K
  Something noted in 7th Nov22 Blog
  Many observations are shared by analysists and economists on the striking similarities seen between 2008 & Present. Are we seeing resilience and insulation for India? Recession Pushed to 2023? Till we see something dangerous let’s enjoy the party is the market mood?
  The below piece of information is being highlighted in our previous blogs starting Dec 22. We intend to keep this tail piece even at the cost of repetition for the sake of quick reference
  If we take the Fib retracements so far the correction has been 1283 points. The Annual gain has been 3704 points from 15183 to 18887. One third correction would fall at 17666 and a 50% correction would mean 17035.
  
  

#Stay Safe

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.