NIFTY - Inflated bulls, Recessionary bears

Aug 1, 2022

Bulls pounce on all cylinders backed by the fall in dollar and yields. Help also comes from greener clues from across the geographical markets. In the midst of all this volumes continue to be the culprit and they are not to the usual bulls mode. This does not take away the hard work of the bulls. Since Nov 2021, the bears had upper hand and we are currently the overbought zones established in the last 8 months. Optically there is some more room to push the bar by the bulls before corrective consolidation can kick in. Bears appear to have lost the plot as the price action is strong above the 16800 fort. July is behind which is by all standards belongs to Bulls. August ideally to be mixed and a tad in favour of bears. Near term profit taking after jumbo rally in many counters is a possibility. Bulls big advantage is the rotation, bears struggle for leadership role. Near term 17050-17250 the range should work. So selling closer to 17190 plus with stop 17260 for 17090 is what one can play in the consolidation phase. A surprise close below 16900 punctures the bulls (highly unlikely). On the upside targets looks towards 17300-400 while we hold 17050 on daily close basis.