NIFTY:TIME CYCLE INVERSION
Updated
Concept of Time Cycle:
#A cycle is something that influences the price movement of a financial market to move up towards a peak, and then to move down towards a trough (or low point).
#It repeats that action on a fairly regular basis or exist in continuous time.
#There are multiple cycles which influence the price movement of any financial market.The multiple cycles that influence price movements combine in a very particular way.
#This multiple cycle low's are synchronized as low are made on the back of "fear/panic" and psychologically human tends to experience fear in mass hence different cycle lows are concentrated where as high's of different cycles are scattered as high's are driven by "GREED" which is rather more subjective.
#J.M.HURST inventor of cycle theory has given a nominal model which states comman cycle's that are found in financial markets.
#Due to multiple cycle going on at the same time,we can see variation in it's wave length(Cycle period).
Observation over here:
Since January 2021 we are seeing Nifty following 20-days time cycle there by making important pivot low's near vertical line showing cycle period day on most of the occasions till January 2022.
Since January 2022 we are seeing inversion happening in the time cycle meaning instead of catching or making important pivot low near cycle period day we are seeing market making important pivot high post which we have seen significant market fall on last 2 occasion of cycle period day.
Next cycle period day is on 17/03/2022.Hence going by this logic we can expect current up move to continue till 17/03/2022 post which we can see fall.
Although this time in the current up move we have seen price breaking upper channel rasistance and has also managed to close above it and also above its previous pivot closing high of 16793(16800) in today's trading session,which in itself is bullish sign suggesting next target of 17050-80 on the upside,however from here risk reward is not favorable for taking long trade.
Although channel rasistance is broken,from last 2 cycle we are seeing Nifty making pivot high's post which we have seen nifty falling and continuing on this logic post 17/03/2022 we can see fall in Nifty till at least previous pivot low of 15670 in order to confirm double bottom.
Trade Setup
1)Need reversal candle near cycle period,price being at gap(17050-80) or previous price action zone(17340-400).
2)Next day market should trade below reversal candle low for atleast first hour in order to initiate trade.
Stop-loss should be reversal candle high for short trade and target would be 15670.
Disclaimer:This are just my views on the index,no position should be squared off or initiated on its basis.Posting this for my future reference.
#A cycle is something that influences the price movement of a financial market to move up towards a peak, and then to move down towards a trough (or low point).
#It repeats that action on a fairly regular basis or exist in continuous time.
#There are multiple cycles which influence the price movement of any financial market.The multiple cycles that influence price movements combine in a very particular way.
#This multiple cycle low's are synchronized as low are made on the back of "fear/panic" and psychologically human tends to experience fear in mass hence different cycle lows are concentrated where as high's of different cycles are scattered as high's are driven by "GREED" which is rather more subjective.
#J.M.HURST inventor of cycle theory has given a nominal model which states comman cycle's that are found in financial markets.
#Due to multiple cycle going on at the same time,we can see variation in it's wave length(Cycle period).
Observation over here:
Since January 2021 we are seeing Nifty following 20-days time cycle there by making important pivot low's near vertical line showing cycle period day on most of the occasions till January 2022.
Since January 2022 we are seeing inversion happening in the time cycle meaning instead of catching or making important pivot low near cycle period day we are seeing market making important pivot high post which we have seen significant market fall on last 2 occasion of cycle period day.
Next cycle period day is on 17/03/2022.Hence going by this logic we can expect current up move to continue till 17/03/2022 post which we can see fall.
Although this time in the current up move we have seen price breaking upper channel rasistance and has also managed to close above it and also above its previous pivot closing high of 16793(16800) in today's trading session,which in itself is bullish sign suggesting next target of 17050-80 on the upside,however from here risk reward is not favorable for taking long trade.
Although channel rasistance is broken,from last 2 cycle we are seeing Nifty making pivot high's post which we have seen nifty falling and continuing on this logic post 17/03/2022 we can see fall in Nifty till at least previous pivot low of 15670 in order to confirm double bottom.
Trade Setup
1)Need reversal candle near cycle period,price being at gap(17050-80) or previous price action zone(17340-400).
2)Next day market should trade below reversal candle low for atleast first hour in order to initiate trade.
Stop-loss should be reversal candle high for short trade and target would be 15670.
Disclaimer:This are just my views on the index,no position should be squared off or initiated on its basis.Posting this for my future reference.
Note
Road-blocks ahead1)Previous price actione zone swing high @ 17340-17400
2)Highest volume zone as per volume profile @ 17350-17400
3)Falling OI since last 3 days.
4)Ichimoku cloud rasistance at17350
5)8 days offset FLD target @ 17250-17300 zone already achieved.
This are just road blocks,this doesnt mean nifty will reverse from here however it needs to cross 17350-400 level for further upside.Personally i feel we will need another gap up opening for crossing 17350-400 level.
Disclaimer
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