Basis previous channel breakouts, the third channel formation is likely.
Why downward channel, and not upward or horizontal channel?
The supply chain shocks of war and petrol price/commodity price shocks will be evident in Jan quarter, results till force downward channel
Fundamentals
USD-INR - Negatives, FII unlikely to comeback immediately May - 0.5% hike confirmed by Fed, Market will start slowly factoring it in Oil - To be within 70-110 USD range, will hit margins Banks - FII offloading will offset gains due to good results - as seen in Dec q results RBI Hike - Imminent, will see in April first week Valuations - NIFTY at historic high PE valuation, March rerating unlike to bring it below 18
Unknowns
Massive ceasefire and lifting of sanctions in 1 month (unlikely) will see breach of 17800 COVID breakout and lockdown in Shenzhen/HK - massive supply chain shock can cause major downside Fed increasing 0.75% due to 10% inflation in US can cause 15k to be broken
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.