NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The market witnessed a gradual shift towards higher levels. Friday saw a gap down opening due to uncertainties with regards to the impact on account of change in Geo-political risk perceptions. However, the markets recovered quickly and closed higher making a case for strengthening of key support zone of 19500-19450. With territorial conflicts and celestial happenings, next couple of weeks are expected to remain volatile.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:

• The index moved in a range of 363 points viz. between 19480 and 19843
  
• The oscillators of different time frames are showing mixed signals
  
• Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
  

 
Expected scenarios for the ensuing week

• The ascending channel is redrawn with the new support seen from the lows of the previous week.
  
• Index has made a higher high and higher lows which is seen as positive
  
• After removing the outliers, the Nifty Index is moving in an ascending channel with a top at 20430 and lower end support at 19430 with a pivot at 19930
  

Additional interesting observations

• Though the sentiments seem to change, the Bears still holds fair control and would continue to attempt selling every rally till the index is below crucial zone of 19880 – 19960
  
• Index may find supports at 19640, 19520, 19430 and the index could face resistances at multiple levels 19880, 19980, 20060, 20120
  
• There has been a few Gaps created in this bull run
  
• 18818-18908 (28th Jun 23) far off for now
  
• 18972-19079 (29th July 23) far off for now
  
• 19189-19246 (3rd July 23) far off for now
  
• 20063-20133- Got filled yet a new Gap created 20133-19980*
  

Final Note

• The Index has stayed well above the long-term trend line and the 200 DMA at 18553 and is moving back and forth of the 55 DMA at 19635
  
• The ascending channel is redrawn with the levels supported during this week and it appears that there are chances that the Index may consolidate in a smaller range before taking further direction
  
• Expected to consolidate remain in the range of 19460-19960 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
  
• As noted in the previous Blog, the Daily chart has a hammer with a confirmation and the target for the same is 19860, which is almost achieved. Similarly, the weekly chart has a hammer and a confirmation and the target extends till 20500 and the next question is the time frame. Ideally it would be good for the market to consolidate after every stage higher by 300-350 points.
  
• The distinct fault lines lie at 19450 on the lower end and 19880 on the higher end
  
• Expect for the Geo-political backlashes the set-up appears to be positive for a re-attempt of 20K
  

#Stay Safe

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.