NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The Index moved in a slightly narrower range in a truncated week. The Index registered gains and made a bullish candle for the fourth consecutive week and achieved another ATH. The sentiment continues to be positive. It remains to be seen whether the narrower range is on account of consolidation phase or a sign of exhaustion. This week is crucial for the further direction and the target.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:

• The index moved in a range of 301 points viz. between 22224 and 22525
  
• The oscillators of different time frames are stretched and showing mixed signals
  
• Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
  
• Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
  
• Volatility and choppy moves likely to continue for a couple of more weeks
  
• Index staying above 22240 is a positive sign for the scope of attempting higher levels before a correction
  

Additional interesting observations

• Index managed to scale a new ATH and posted a bullish candle
  
• Index may find supports at 22370, 22240, 22120 and the index could face resistances at, 22580, 22670,22770
  
• There were multiple gaps created during this dream run. The levels were repeatedly mentioned in the previous blogs. Since they are far away for now, they will be inserted back when relevant
  

Final Note

• The Index has stayed well above 55 DMA at 21804 and the 200 DMA at 20146
  
• The weekly charts suggest that the Index is moving in an expanding triangle and within the triangle the minor trend is in an ascending channel with the top at 22670 and the support at 21120
  
• Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 22120 & 22680. Breach on either side requires reassessment of risk
  
• There is no reversal signal seen yet and it appears like an extended rally
  
• The market is expected to remain volatile and witness choppy moves. This requires cautious approach
  
• The notable observation is that the Index has formed a tweezer bottom at 21860 there by making a case for a journey towards 22770 followed by 23130. This would be negated if the breaches 21840
  
• In the past few years the March month has produced strong moves which are mostly in the direction of the trend. It remains to be seen how the scenario unfolds
  
• As highlighted in the past few weeks the Index is close to the target of 22450+
  
• Ensuing week is crucial for deciding the future direction and the target
  

#Stay Safe



Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.