NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The past week saw a clear break-out from the range of 16930 & 17200. The final session of the week saw a gap-up open and a sharp move to a high of 17381. The Global risk perception continuing to show on and off glimpse of hope only to be countered by another wave of turmoil. It remains to be seen if this enthusiasm would keep the market afloat.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:
Weekly charts suggest that

• The index moved in a range of 468 points viz. between 16913 and 17381
  The oscillators of different time frames are showing mixed signals
  Global Risk perception still remains tilted towards negative
  

Expected scenarios for the ensuing week

• Index may find supports at 17200, 17080,16960 and the index could face resistances at multiple levels viz. 17440, 17570, 17660
  Expected to remain in the range of 17080-17570 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
  Additional interesting observations
  The observations made in the previous blog comparing the similarities in the past moves produced similar results in the last 2 sessions like a thriller movie
  Week of 12 Dec22 to Week of 19 Dec22-18696-17779- 917 Following week 300+
  Week of 16 Jan23 to Week of 23 Jan23- 18183-17493- 690 Following week 250+
  Week of 06 Mar23 to Week of 20 Mar23- 17799-16828- 971 Following week 468
  The Index is at the edge of a trend line break above 17380 could trigger next target of 17540-17600 zone
  There had been multiple Gaps created during the up move (These are risk zones for sharp moves)
  17126-17221(newly created gap)
  16650-16770
  
  

16360-16560
Final Note

• After several weeks the Index has formed a higher high and higher lows which is considered a bullish sign
  The Index is moving in a downward sloping channel with base support at 16740 and top at 17800
  The below piece of information is being highlighted in our previous blogs starting Dec 22. We intend to keep this tail piece even at the cost of repetition for the sake of quick reference
  If we take the Fib retracements so far the correction has been 1283 points. The Annual gain has been 3704 points from 15183 to 18887. One third correction would fall at 17666 and a 50% correction would mean 17035.
  We have tested one notch below this 50%
  The final hope remains at 17740
  It is to be noted that the monthly charts paint a very gloomy picture as most indices are just close to the Mid BB and a Doji in the monthly chart indicates a period of uncertainty
  Tweezer bottom at 16930 worked and the target based on Fib projection is 17560
  Most likely scenario could be a range of 17080-17560 and a case open for 17667
  
  

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.