NIFTY - Barrels and Blue Ticks and Irks

Apr 3, 2023

Nifty bulls had one of their best foots aided by the break, short covering, a dejavu end to the month. A close in positive of 50 points, to escape the history. Does it lend any strength, or the weakness is to be tested. While elsewhere, no crisis, no problem markets fed and envelope everywhere. The markets are slowly recognising, the path of rate hike and crisis that is assumed in the making are delinked. The recent rally, if any is on the back-drop of liquidity if nothing else. Week-end twitter, blue ticks were the topic, Tesla sales meeting the production (on the backdrop of huge discounts), displays the underlying pricing pressures or demand weakening at higher price velocity. While the technical front has improved, the economic front markets are still assuming the end of the negativity. Being in the period of results, it is going to be volatile than anything else. In the graph the emjoi's are displayed showing the excess both to the bulls and bears resulting in false break. The down-ward channel we are more or less near. Previous excess were around 0.5-1.00% max. Clearly a close above 1% of the channel is required for the bulls to conclude they are in charge for higher area probe. Some back of the levels suggests this around 17500. Near term many of the large caps near the sloping trendline or the horizontal line suggesting difficult in penetration. With holiday tomorrow bulls will be reluctant to add. Shorts with stops 17430 for 17280 is the preferred approach. A direct close below 17200 brings the bears back.