The most important question in front of every Investor/ Trader is
1. When is the "RIGHT TIME" to Buy and Sell?
2. What is the "BEST PRICE/LEVEL" to Buy and Sell?
The Market has its own story to tell and we just need to listens to what exactly the market is trying to say!!
We have considered last 4 BULL & BEAR CYCLE and we try to interpret how market exactly behaves.
Tools used: Fibonacci ("Fibo" here onwards) retracement
Method: Swing Low as "0" of previous Bear Market & Swing High of Bull Market as "1", we will try to focus on the Fibo levels rather than the actual price.
Cycles within the Cycles:
A. 2004-2008 Cycle: We start with 2004 low of 1282. as "0" and Market High of 2008 i.e. 6373.6 as "1"
B. 2008-2012 Cycle: We start with 2008 low of 2284.9 as "0" and Market High of 2010 i.e. 6338.5 as "1"
C. 2012-2016 Cycle: We start with 2012 low of 4531.15 as "0" and Market High of 2015 i.e. 9138.15 as "1"
D. 2016-2020 Cycle: We start with 2016 low of 6973.45 as "0" and Market High of 2020 i.e. 12430.5 as "1"
As updated, we have just considered the swing low & swing high of Bull & Bear Cycle and try to find out what exactly is happening.
Observations
1: In 2004-2008 & 2016-2020 Cycle, the Market Retracement (or Pullback) level is 0.236,
in July'2008, It tried to take a support around 0.5 level i.e. 3827 but couldn't sustain and ultimately it dropped down to 0.236 levels
2: In 2008-2012 & 2012-2016 Cycle, the Market Retracement (or Pullback) level is 0.5 (in 2016, it was exactly till 0.5 level i.e. 6834 while in Dec''2011, it was 4531 while 0.5 level was 4311.69) still such closer to the actual levels
Conclusion:
1. Always allow the Market to form its 1st leg i.e. 0-1 level, while we wait for retracement level before we take any trades
2. The best probability of trading is either at 0.5 level or 0.236 level of the retracement.
3. Targets can be 1.272 & 1.618 levels or Higher (at these levels we tend to find out similar Price action of Fibo on Daily or Intraday levels with High as 0 & Low as 1, to identify reversal patterns)
Notes: These are long monthly candles, it should be preceded by Daily candles, along with other Tools like Moving Average, RSI & MACD.
Same can be also applied for intraday trading on Positional trades.
Unit_of_Technical_Analysis
1. When is the "RIGHT TIME" to Buy and Sell?
2. What is the "BEST PRICE/LEVEL" to Buy and Sell?
The Market has its own story to tell and we just need to listens to what exactly the market is trying to say!!
We have considered last 4 BULL & BEAR CYCLE and we try to interpret how market exactly behaves.
Tools used: Fibonacci ("Fibo" here onwards) retracement
Method: Swing Low as "0" of previous Bear Market & Swing High of Bull Market as "1", we will try to focus on the Fibo levels rather than the actual price.
Cycles within the Cycles:
A. 2004-2008 Cycle: We start with 2004 low of 1282. as "0" and Market High of 2008 i.e. 6373.6 as "1"
B. 2008-2012 Cycle: We start with 2008 low of 2284.9 as "0" and Market High of 2010 i.e. 6338.5 as "1"
C. 2012-2016 Cycle: We start with 2012 low of 4531.15 as "0" and Market High of 2015 i.e. 9138.15 as "1"
D. 2016-2020 Cycle: We start with 2016 low of 6973.45 as "0" and Market High of 2020 i.e. 12430.5 as "1"
As updated, we have just considered the swing low & swing high of Bull & Bear Cycle and try to find out what exactly is happening.
Observations
1: In 2004-2008 & 2016-2020 Cycle, the Market Retracement (or Pullback) level is 0.236,
in July'2008, It tried to take a support around 0.5 level i.e. 3827 but couldn't sustain and ultimately it dropped down to 0.236 levels
2: In 2008-2012 & 2012-2016 Cycle, the Market Retracement (or Pullback) level is 0.5 (in 2016, it was exactly till 0.5 level i.e. 6834 while in Dec''2011, it was 4531 while 0.5 level was 4311.69) still such closer to the actual levels
Conclusion:
1. Always allow the Market to form its 1st leg i.e. 0-1 level, while we wait for retracement level before we take any trades
2. The best probability of trading is either at 0.5 level or 0.236 level of the retracement.
3. Targets can be 1.272 & 1.618 levels or Higher (at these levels we tend to find out similar Price action of Fibo on Daily or Intraday levels with High as 0 & Low as 1, to identify reversal patterns)
Notes: These are long monthly candles, it should be preceded by Daily candles, along with other Tools like Moving Average, RSI & MACD.
Same can be also applied for intraday trading on Positional trades.
Unit_of_Technical_Analysis
