INDICES hit new Highs and then Slip in a choppy session

NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -24-09-21

IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17897.45 / 17947.65 / 17819.4 / 17853.2 [+30.25 /+0.17%]
H-L = 128 points
VIX 16.92 / +1.93%
FII DII: -73 Crores
SGX NIFTY EOD - 17853 +22 points
Likely open: Flat to mild positive. 17850-900 is the next hurdle.

CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart


A strong gap-up open which could not be sustained and from after 1030h, the euphoria was over and participants seemed to be busy banking gains.

NIFTY made a higher high and a higher low but remained very choppy throughout the day.

It tested the P Close and each time it rose, it started getting attracted towards the P Close.

On the weekly charts, the candle looks good and strong but on the weekly chart it does not look good.

NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS

The Weight Lifters

RELIANCE 42
HDFC BANK 32
HDFC 30
BAJAJ FINSERV 28
ICICI BANK 19
TOTAL 151

The Draggers

HDFC LIFE 02
ITC 02
NESTLE 02
DR REDDY’S 01
BRITANNIA 01
TOTAL 08

Lifter - Draggers = +143

POSITIVES
NIFTY ended the week and at ATH Close of 17853.

HDFC twins, RELIANCE, INFOSYS, ICICI BANK, and KOTAK BANK supported the index and helped NIFTY end in green and at a new ATH for the week.

HDFC BANK ended the day above 1600 psycho level which is a big positive.

MARUTI finally woke up from the slumber.


NEGATIVES

BANK NIFTY retested the ATH at 38112 and lost its way on the downside immediately after open and then remained choppy and sideways. This was despite the leading banks being in good green.

The negativity was created mostly by the PSU banks in which AXIS BANK also threw in its weight which worsened the situation.

TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 27-09-21

In view of the extreme choppy and tussle-prone price action witnessed in Friday’s session, I am unable to draw the support lines nor I am sure about the resistance lines. It is better that we let the Monday price action play out keeping a wide range of 17500-17950 for NIFTY and 37200 and 38200 for BANK NIFTY.

The ranges may look wider but when there is a tight range trading, a big move on either side is imminent.

INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS

Today was an epic fight between VWAP and P Close with the price action, especially in the BANK NIFTY. To add fuel to the fire, the P Close for BANK NIFTY spot and BANK NIFTY Futures were differently placed in terms of % +/- which created further tussle as although spot kept going up above P Close, the Futures P Close kept coming in the way.

And then when Futures P Close was cleared, NIFTY as well BANK NIFTY futures had resistances from their VWAP or Tick Average. This went for quite a long time and even ATM CE saw decays on day 1 of trading.

What was surprising was that despite RELIANCE & HDFC BANK being strong, both the indices struggled for mist part of the day. I do not know how this could have happened as when both these indices are down, the indices simply get overwhelmed and follow their line.

However, in my view, the real interesting price action was that of MARUTI. It opened flat, made a low near the open and then shot up to 6900 and then fell back again and then rose almost 200 points in a matter of 90 minutes or so and then again lost 100 points and rallied a few points to end the day 100+ points from the P Close. I have a separate post on the same. Please have a look at it.

What do you feel about this?

Thank you, and Happy Money Making!

Umesh
25-09-21

NOTE --

This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.


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