The expected move is around $2.60 by doing a a synthetic spiked lizard with 2 ratio spreads we don't have risk to the upside and to the downside we have a buffer of over $3.
Our break even is just below the $55 mark, and we have a max profit of $220. I will look to close it out tomorrow.
Probability of profit is around 79%, but since this is an earnings play, probabilities don't matter that much and we can treat this almost like a 50/50