NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Jul17-21)

Jul 17, 2023

SUMMARY

• NQ finished the week with a gain of 3.3% after trading in a range of 771 pts.
  
• NQ closed just below the Mar 29th high.
  
• First support is now HTF 786 Fib RT / 21 ema
  
• Price is still above the HTF 618 Fib and Aug16th high
  
• Price broke through the 1.272 Fib X putting the 1.618 Fib X in play.
  
• 10 Year yields pulled back sharply from 4% closing at 3.81%
  
• All sectors closed green on the week led by XLY & XLY. The weakest sector was XLE closing up only 0.82%.
  
• Earnings seasons has begun. Key reports due out this week form TSLA, NFLX, BAC, GS, TSM & CSX.
  
• Lighter week for econ data but the G7 meets Monday.
  

ECONOMIC EVENTS

• MON G20 Meeting (All day)
  
• TUES CAN CPI, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Prod & Fed's Barr speaks
  
• WED US Housing Starts, EIA Crude Inventories
  
• THUR US Initial Jobless Claims, US Existing Home Sales, US Philly Fed Bus Index
  
• FRI CAN Retail Sales
  

EARNINGS

• MON Nothing Notable
  
• TUES BAC, HAS, IBKR, LMT, MS, NVS, SCHS
  
• WED AA, ALLY, BKR, DFS, GS, HAL, IBM, KMI, LVS, NFLX, TSLA, UAL, USB
  
• THUR AAL, ABT, BX, CSX, DHI, FCX, GPC, JNJ, NEM, PPG, TSM
  
• FRI AXP, SLB
  

BULLISH NOTES

• NQ closed above the 1.272 Fib X putting the 1.618 Fib X in play
  
• EMAs are stacked.
  
• Price in now only 8.28% of the ATH
  
• Potential break of the Mar 29th high.
  
• Potential earnings momentum this week from TSLA & NFLX
  
• TSLA and AAPL have huge whole number targets.
  
• Buy the dip is back in favour.
  
• Market breath has improved.
  
• NQ is firmly in the long term bull zone. Above high time frame 618 Fib RT.
  

BEARISH NOTES

• Potential rejection at the Mar 29th high
  
• NQ may need to retest the 9/21 emas
  
• Potential negative reaction to TSLA & NFLX earnings.
  
• The Aug 16th high breakout point has not been re-tested yet.
  
• Price is stretched from the emas and 200 sma
  
• Stoch 5,1 is overbought.
  
• Potential shock event (war, bank failure ect)
  

Jul 18, 2023

Note

NQ_F Strong bounce afte retest of the 786 Fib retracement. Back above the Mar 29th high and has broken recent high on MSFT news. Upside target is the 866 Fib. TSLA earnings tomorrow after the bell will be key. Bullish bias will continue unless price falls back below the 786.

Jul 19, 2023

Note

NQ_F continues to grind higher. Uptrend is weakening though. Possible pull back if people take profit in TSLA as it come into 300. Also some rotation into the defensive sectors today.

Jul 20, 2023

Note

NQ_F TSLA tapped 299.5 and then sold off on earning taking the market with it. Profit taking has pulled price back below the Mar 29th high. Now sitting at the 786 Fib retracement again. Look for support here. If support fails a move to the bottom of the green box is likely.