Nvidia: Bullish Distraction

Amid bullish momentum, Nvidia edged closer to resistance at $196.45 before settling into sideways action late last week. As a result, there remains a 37% probability that the stock will bypass a new low and instead break directly above the $196.45 level. However, our primary expectation is for the stock to turn lower, targeting our green Target Zone between $163.09 and $139.58 to complete green wave [4]. Only after this move do we anticipate a sustained advance above $196.45, which would mark the completion of beige wave III. Following a wave IV pullback below this threshold, we ultimately expect gains into the blue Target Zone between $227.38 and $260.60, where beige wave V should complete not only blue wave (V), but also the larger neon green wave [1].