After months of sideways consolidation, Nvidia’s share price broke and closed decisively above resistance during yesterday's session – potentially reigniting the stocks powerful long-term uptrend.
Nvidia, a key player in the AI revolution, had an exceptional 2023, with its stock value more than tripling. However, the majority of these gains occurred in the first half of the year. Since summer, Nvidia's stock has been consolidating within a sideways range, as indicated in the chart below.
These prolonged consolidation phases within an established trend are not just typical but also beneficial. They facilitate stock rotation, involving accumulation and distribution, which helps prevent the trend from becoming overly stretched.
The breakthrough to new trend highs occurred following Nvidia's announcement of groundbreaking desktop graphics processors tailored for AI purposes—the GeForce RTX 40 SUPER Series. This unveiling triggered a substantial 6.4% surge, propelling the stock to close at record highs. Additionally, ahead of the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, the company introduced other AI-related components and software.
Nvidia (NVDA) Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
A Closer Look
If we take a closer look at yesterday’s breakout, there are several technical factors which indicate that the breakout has potential to continue:
Backed By Volume: On the hourly candle chart (below) we can see that the breakout was backed by an increase in volume – signalling increased participation. Volume acts as a validation mechanism for breakouts. It provides confidence to traders that the breakout has a stronger chance of being a genuine shift in market sentiment, rather than a temporary blip.
Higher Swing Lows: From November to December, Nvidia’s share price had been carving out a series of higher swing lows as the market repeatedly tested resistance. This signals that institutional ‘smart money’ traders were accumulating shares prior to the breakout.
Strong Close: Yesterday’s price action saw the shares maintain the breakout into the closing bell. This signals strong demand and reduces the probability that the breakout will fail.
Nvidia (NVDA) Hourly Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
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