Resaerch Analysis for SAIL

Jul 6

Technical Analysis (Weekly Chart View)
Current Price Action: SAIL is trading at ₹134.72, currently showing a minor downtrend after failing to sustain above the minor resistance. The stock has seen a significant rally from mid-2023 lows (around ₹90-₹100) to highs around ₹170 in early 2024, followed by a correction and consolidation.

Key Levels (as per Trading Analysis notes):

Major Resistance: ₹170.00. This is a crucial long-term resistance level.

Minor Resistance: ₹141.79. The stock is currently trading below this.

Minor Support: ₹134.77 (current price level, implying it's testing this support).

Major Support: ₹117.91. This is a strong historical support level.

Downtrend Below: ₹116/₹115. A break below this would signal a significant bearish trend.

Trading Analyst Notes:

Price is above major Change of Trend area, i.e., above ₹115.

Possible range-bound movement between ₹125-₹140.

Accumulate at lower areas (₹115 to ₹125).

Momentum traders can enter above ₹140 targeting ₹170.

Volume: Shows healthy volume spikes during strong price moves (both up and down), which is typical. Recent volumes are moderate.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Visually, the RSI appears to be around the 50-60 level, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish momentum, with room to move in either direction.

Technical Outlook: SAIL is in a consolidation phase. The bullish technical view suggests accumulation on dips towards ₹115-₹125. A decisive breakout above ₹140, with strong volume, could confirm an upward momentum targeting ₹170. Conversely, a breakdown below ₹115 would be a bearish signal.

Jul 6

Note

Fundamental Analysis
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Net Sales:

Consistent and significant growth over the years, from ₹39,098 Cr (FY2016) to ₹1,05,378 Cr (FY2024).

FY2025 (TTM): ₹1,02,479 Cr. This indicates stable, high revenue, though a slight dip from FY2024. Steel is a cyclical industry, so some fluctuations are expected.

Total Income: Follows the Net Sales trend, indicating core operations are the primary revenue driver.

Exceptional Items: Generally small and volatile, some positive, some negative. -₹313 Cr in FY2025 (TTM).

PAT (Profit After Tax):

Highly cyclical, with significant losses in earlier years (e.g., -₹4,177 Cr in FY2016).

Recorded strong profits in FY2021 (₹4,148 Cr) and especially FY2022 (₹12,243 Cr) during a steel boom.

FY2023: ₹2,177 Cr; FY224: ₹1,885 Cr.

FY2025 (TTM): ₹1,985 Cr. This indicates continued profitability, albeit moderated from the cyclical peak.

Jul 6

Note

ShareHolding Pattern
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Shareholding Pattern (March 2025)
Promoter Holding: 65.00% (Government of India). This is a very strong majority holding, ensuring stability and long-term strategic direction aligns with government policy. No promoter shares are pledged, which is a significant positive.

Public Holding: 35.00%.

FII/FPI: 3.21% in March 2025. This has shown some volatility, but a slight increase from 2.59% in Dec 2024. It indicates some foreign institutional interest.

DII (Domestic Institutional Investors): 15.75% in March 2025. This is a healthy and relatively stable institutional presence, indicating conviction from domestic funds like mutual funds and insurance companies.

Non-Institutional: 16.05% in March 2025, which represents retail and HNI investors.

Number of Shares Outstanding: Steadily increased from 15.22 Cr in March 2023 to 40.46 Cr in March 2025. This represents significant equity dilution, possibly through rights issues or other capital-raising activities, which affects EPS.

Big Bulls (March 2025):

Government of India Funds: 65.00% (₹36,168 Cr holding value) – This confirms the promoter holding.

LIC Of India: 9.99% (₹5,560 Cr holding value) – A very significant institutional holding, indicating strong confidence from India's largest insurer.

Interpretation: The shareholding pattern is robust, dominated by a stable government promoter and significant DII and LIC presence, lending stability and institutional backing to the stock. The increase in shares outstanding is a point to note for per-share metrics.

Jul 6

Trade active

Rating: HOLD (with Accumulate on Dips)

SAIL is a fundamentally sound, large-cap PSU in a cyclical industry.

Financials: The company shows strong revenue and PBIDT, but its PAT is sensitive to steel cycles. The large asset base and high depreciation/interest are characteristic of the industry. The increase in shares outstanding needs to be factored into per-share valuations.

Shareholding: The dominant government holding and strong institutional presence (especially LIC) provide stability and confidence.

Technicals: The stock is in a consolidation phase with clearly defined support and resistance levels. The technical notes suggest accumulation on dips and a potential breakout above ₹140.

Given its cyclical nature, current valuation, and technical consolidation, SAIL is a HOLD for existing investors. For new investors, an Accumulate on Dips strategy around the ₹115-₹125 major support zone would be prudent, with a target of ₹170 if the technical breakout above ₹140 is confirmed. Investors should be mindful of steel cycle dynamics