Long

SBIN: Upar Jane ka Raasta - Fib Retracement

Updated

Having gone past 200, I expect a slightly gap up opening tomorrow (around 201-202)
Let it stabilise:
202 is the next resistance so watch for it to close above 202 (you will need to scroll to the left to see why)

Above 202, if it sustains and if BankNifty sustains above 23000 - We should get nearer to 207
As for why please refer the linked idea.

Note

Massive OI for BN 23000 today

Note

SBIN Price - BN level correlation (as observed & interpolated)
196-21500; 200-22900; 202 - 23000; 206 - 23500; 210 - 24000

BN OI: Major Support at 22500 has OI of 10 lakhs, 23000 has OI of 17 lakh (+8.5 lakh today) & 23500 has 10 lakh.

It is possible that BN and SBIN (on corollary) will bounce between these levels.

Note

The bounce comment is not for tomorrow - bounce till End of July; I don't expect SBIN to go beyond 210 before July expiration (30 July). Happy to be proven wrong.

Trade closed: target reached

Sold overnight positions at 202 level.
buy only above 203

Note

BN is not sustaining at the levels needed for upswing; of course SBIN can carry BN - watch an enter on dips

Trade active

Picked up positions at 199 levels. will accumulate unto 196

Note

Target is 206

Note

Look at it taking support from the Fib level 195.8. As long as this level doesn't get properly breached, the upward idea remains valid.

Trade active

So far, I see it as a Resistance turning to support. I only half expected SBIN to jump 2 resistance levels in 1 day's rally as mentioned already on comments. For the idea to hold true - obviously with Market sentiment staying put as it has so far (fresh surge in corona cases and lockdowns not affecting), SBIN should take support from 196 levels and close near about 206 by July end. I am accumulating some cheap 210 CE July options on dips. Its not a trading advice obviously! lets see how this bet pans out. Idear for Monday: If it stays put to this level - buy. In case of gap-down (probable)- definitely buy! In case of gap-up, buy on dips.

Note

SBIN to raise 20,000 Cr - AGM next week - Stock should rally up in expectation of a rights issue. if its a debenture issue - price may fall.

Trade active

yet another support from 195.8; Hope you guys bought on dips.

Note

Refer BN correlation - BN is moving up; if it manages to go back to 22800 - can expect a good upswing

Note

BN - 22000

raj_rishav

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