After backtesting SPX from the 90s to current day, I realized there was a significant change in the way it was traded after the internet boom.
It used to look like a forex pair, with regular patterns occuring, but now, it's clear there is manipulation to weed out new money from seeing a long-term gain. It almost feels like talking about a dinosaur when realizing how fast cryptos see returns, but, I think that SPX has grown to a parabolic height, and is due for a large selloff for old money to get into new tech.
My analysis is simple: I see a sell divergence that has been setting itself up since 2018. The uptrend SPX has been in is just straight up since then, and I see it as just a matter of time before it happens.
The sell divergence is accurate all the down to H4.
My feeling is the end of March it will begin. They might aim for a nice round number to hit before, like 5k, and then begin the selloff.