SP500 - In fact it is not trending. Key lvls are: 2050 / 2130
Bulls have their arguments why to buy every dip and why it wil finally continue to move up. So does the Bears, they have the all kind of reasons to short equity mkt from time to time. I don't know who will be right, or what will be the trigger. I know the only fact is: SP500 has not been trending since Febr/2015.
Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is turning to neutral: Chikou Span hits past candles, and all averages stay as flat line
Kijun Supprt is at 2060, 100 WMA and trendline at 2020, Kumo (Senkou B) is at 1972
- Heikin Ashi has been mixed in last 5 months. Quick candle colour changes and a zig-zag haDelta around zero line shows it's been a long term consolidation.
- Wouls be bullish again above 2130, bearish biased below 2055-2060, and really bearish below 2000.
Daily:
- Absolutely neutral Ichimoku setup, impossible to trade Ichimoku trend following signals. Flat and thin Kumo, all averages (Tenkan, Kijun and Senkou lines) stay flat together around 2090, which is the equilibrium price now (also middle of trading range
- Heikin Ashi is bearish, with some momentum loss expected for today. Actually it is not that bad to trade the range now with Heikin Ashi candle reversal strategy (and with tight stops).
- Bullish continuation requires a close above 2130, confirmed bearish Kumo breakout and trend break would happen with a close below 2050!
- 200 day MA is under attack again.
Looking at China story, real demand for commodities, the possible FED hike, and the market breadth indicators I am rather bearish biased for long term. Looking at how central policy makers have been manipulating different asset classes, mainly equities, I just can not believe SP500 or stock mkts in general will be very easy to break and turn into bearish... but who knows, crashes and black swans are never announced in advance.
The prudent way now is to keep small short (and/or scale back longs), and act more agressively when the trend breaks.
Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is turning to neutral: Chikou Span hits past candles, and all averages stay as flat line
Kijun Supprt is at 2060, 100 WMA and trendline at 2020, Kumo (Senkou B) is at 1972
- Heikin Ashi has been mixed in last 5 months. Quick candle colour changes and a zig-zag haDelta around zero line shows it's been a long term consolidation.
- Wouls be bullish again above 2130, bearish biased below 2055-2060, and really bearish below 2000.
Daily:
- Absolutely neutral Ichimoku setup, impossible to trade Ichimoku trend following signals. Flat and thin Kumo, all averages (Tenkan, Kijun and Senkou lines) stay flat together around 2090, which is the equilibrium price now (also middle of trading range
- Heikin Ashi is bearish, with some momentum loss expected for today. Actually it is not that bad to trade the range now with Heikin Ashi candle reversal strategy (and with tight stops).
- Bullish continuation requires a close above 2130, confirmed bearish Kumo breakout and trend break would happen with a close below 2050!
- 200 day MA is under attack again.
Looking at China story, real demand for commodities, the possible FED hike, and the market breadth indicators I am rather bearish biased for long term. Looking at how central policy makers have been manipulating different asset classes, mainly equities, I just can not believe SP500 or stock mkts in general will be very easy to break and turn into bearish... but who knows, crashes and black swans are never announced in advance.
The prudent way now is to keep small short (and/or scale back longs), and act more agressively when the trend breaks.
