S&P 500 - Rising Wedge Update

May 12, 2020

We recently saw the breakdown from the rising wedge as predicted in my earlier post. People who played that were able to lock in some nice short profits. However, the price has managed to creep back up again so many might be wondering what will happen next. We can see that the 61.8% Fibonacci line is providing more resistance than even I expected. The problem is that an even stronger resistance cluster is still looming right above the important Fibonacci line. It is very common for the price to retest the 200 day moving average after a death cross has occurred and then continue to the downside. The chart will only become bullish if the price manages to crush the 100 and 200 day moving averages with high volume and then consolidate above them, turning them into support. I definitely still lean bearish until that happens.

See you in a future post!