S&P 500 IndexShort
S&P 500 bull run coming to an end; risk-reward is all risk
S&P 500 bull run coming to an end with the risk-reward being all risk
A look at the 1W timeframe. If the pattern holds since 2009, then the S&P is due for a sizeable correction in the coming months. As you can see in the chart, every time it touches the top of the blue channel it ultimately ends up making a correction of 15-20% back to the middle of the channel. The recent ATH touched the blue channel perfectly and no you can see that it has also broken down out of the rising wedge, just like the previous times.
If we take a look at the indicators, then you can see that the cRSI is now lower than any point in the rally since April 2020. The MACD is also showing a clear cross on August 30th and is showing a clear down trend with the most distance between the signal and MACD since April.
It is possible to see a retest of the ATH (see April 2011 and most of 2015), but it looks like the S&P's historic bull run is coming to an end. Thus by my reasoning, the is a lot more downside risk then there is upside reward.
1w
1d
A look at the 1W timeframe. If the pattern holds since 2009, then the S&P is due for a sizeable correction in the coming months. As you can see in the chart, every time it touches the top of the blue channel it ultimately ends up making a correction of 15-20% back to the middle of the channel. The recent ATH touched the blue channel perfectly and no you can see that it has also broken down out of the rising wedge, just like the previous times.
If we take a look at the indicators, then you can see that the cRSI is now lower than any point in the rally since April 2020. The MACD is also showing a clear cross on August 30th and is showing a clear down trend with the most distance between the signal and MACD since April.
It is possible to see a retest of the ATH (see April 2011 and most of 2015), but it looks like the S&P's historic bull run is coming to an end. Thus by my reasoning, the is a lot more downside risk then there is upside reward.
1w
1d
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.