Deep correction incomming SPY to 470-475
Anyone who has gone to the gas station has seen the price trickling up every week, from looking like it was approaching $3 to now headed towards $5 in just the last few months.
With tensions and uncertainty in the middle east and rising inflation combined with the fed deciding there will be no rate cuts anytime soon the market is ready to correct.
I have been tracking the technicals for a while and today the Mclellan, which tracks the market breadth has dropped to its lowest point in the past year, lower than when the August correction of last year occurred.
In addition the MACD is just now starting to approach 0. I feel it will go negative for quite a while based on its momentum.
In addition the RSI still has room to fall compared to previous corrections.
The red bars were also relatively large which indicates to me that there is a lot of fear and desire to unload, emotionally it wouldn't make sense to sell SPY for 505 when it was 515 that same day, you would think that if people were remotely bullish they would wait for a better price before selling, but having 2 days in the past few weeks where market participants were climbing over themselves to sell it indicates that the bullishness has ended.
All of this makes me pretty confident we will see price return to the 470 region in order to re-test the previous all time high as a point of support.
With tensions and uncertainty in the middle east and rising inflation combined with the fed deciding there will be no rate cuts anytime soon the market is ready to correct.
I have been tracking the technicals for a while and today the Mclellan, which tracks the market breadth has dropped to its lowest point in the past year, lower than when the August correction of last year occurred.
In addition the MACD is just now starting to approach 0. I feel it will go negative for quite a while based on its momentum.
In addition the RSI still has room to fall compared to previous corrections.
The red bars were also relatively large which indicates to me that there is a lot of fear and desire to unload, emotionally it wouldn't make sense to sell SPY for 505 when it was 515 that same day, you would think that if people were remotely bullish they would wait for a better price before selling, but having 2 days in the past few weeks where market participants were climbing over themselves to sell it indicates that the bullishness has ended.
All of this makes me pretty confident we will see price return to the 470 region in order to re-test the previous all time high as a point of support.
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