Fired Up
Updated
Hey guys, so it was a fairly quiet night, with the majors all essentially flat into this morning's retail sales numbers, which came in hotter than expected. US stocks caught a bid on the open (usual morning pump), until around 10:30am when momentum briefly shifted to the downside. On the SPY, we just broke back below the 100 period MA on the 15 minute (349.33), but otherwise we're sitting comfortably above all major supports, across multiple time-frames.
On the hourly, we're trending up, and we've been in a melt-up since we broke back above the 50 period MA, and Green line support, yesterday. On the daily, we broke above the Green line (formerly resistance) on Oct 8th, and yesterday we bounced back off this line, as support (polarity principle). It's important to note, though, that we're at the upper range of the BB on the daily and weekly, with the RSI rolling over from it's recent over-bought levels. On the weekly, we briefly turned positive this morning, and are trading marginally above the Green line support (around 345.50). A close above this support today would mark the first weekly close above, since we broke below the week of Sep 21st. This would add significant fuel to the Bullish continuation theory, with basically every support now holding price discovery hostage.
I'll be looking at the 345.50 level today for a break below, and confirmation of further downside. I'll also be looking at the 350 level, which is the all-time weekly high close. Double-top to end the week, perhaps? It should be an interesting afternoon session to say the least, so stick around.
Thanks for your time today guys. I'll be posting updates throughout the day - so stay tuned! Cheers, Michael.
If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
On the hourly, we're trending up, and we've been in a melt-up since we broke back above the 50 period MA, and Green line support, yesterday. On the daily, we broke above the Green line (formerly resistance) on Oct 8th, and yesterday we bounced back off this line, as support (polarity principle). It's important to note, though, that we're at the upper range of the BB on the daily and weekly, with the RSI rolling over from it's recent over-bought levels. On the weekly, we briefly turned positive this morning, and are trading marginally above the Green line support (around 345.50). A close above this support today would mark the first weekly close above, since we broke below the week of Sep 21st. This would add significant fuel to the Bullish continuation theory, with basically every support now holding price discovery hostage.
I'll be looking at the 345.50 level today for a break below, and confirmation of further downside. I'll also be looking at the 350 level, which is the all-time weekly high close. Double-top to end the week, perhaps? It should be an interesting afternoon session to say the least, so stick around.
Thanks for your time today guys. I'll be posting updates throughout the day - so stay tuned! Cheers, Michael.
If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
Note
Vix looking resilient on the daily, sitting at 26.5, but fighting to hold above the 50 day MA at 25.8. We lost the 100 day MA yesterday, so a close above 25.8 is key to maintaining the recent uptrend in vol.Note
Anemic volume here, and unusual price action (in context) as the majors all trade sideways on op-ex day. Dips bought, and rallies sold. Not much happening at the moment across the board; markets look like they've taken a Taser to the face. Let's see if we find a direction as we approach power hour...Note
Some light selling here, seemingly at 3pm on the dot. Liquidity is terrible, volume is non-existent. If one bear showed up today with a decent portfolio under their belt, this market would buckle. But, so far, no bears in sight.Note
Finding some support at the 100 period MA on the 5 minute (348.70). But, can it hold?Note
Wonkiest price action I've seen in a while. Traders heads are spinning at the lack of conviction in a direction. 5 minute is showing dark cloud cover from the gap up on the open, though. Support at 348.50, and if it breaks, maybe we'll see some action to the downside...Note
Small caps just turned red on the day, and Nasdaq not far behind.Note
US Dollar up notably; now sitting at 93.70. 10 Year yield gaining momentum here as well. Up on the day, and now back above 74.Note
SPY just broke daily support at 348.50, and is now on it's way to filling the over night gap at 347.50. Green line gravity keeps pulling, and pulling, and pulling. Bulls struggling to keep us above the all-time weekly closing high of 350. Can the bears take us back below the Green line before the close? It would take a large sell program, that's for sure.Note
We just broke below the 50 period MA on the hourly. This is a key short-term support. Very bearish price action heading into the final minutes of trade.Note
Gap up from the open has been filled.Note
That's all folks! Looks like they saved all the fireworks for the close. Massive sell program hit at the 99th hour to take us down to 347.25. Bearish close to the week, but still a massive win for the bulls who were able to defend the Green line as weekly support. The weekly closing high of 350 still stands as the, "enough is enough," line in the sand, though, so the double-top theory is still alive and well heading into next week. Thanks for your time today guys, and have a great weekend. Cheers, Michael.
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