SPY: Month of October

5 days ago

Month of October update 🎃

Hey everyone!

Here are my thoughts on the month of October and the annual close that is fast approaching.

Hope you find this helpful, as always leave a comment or questions if you have any!

Thank you and safe trades!

yesterday

Note

Now that SPY has taken out my 2 annual targets, 671 and 672, which mark exactly the average bullish return on bullish years (14%), where do we go?

Looking at the top 500 tickers on SPY, 33.2% rank at "Trend Exhaustion" and the reminder are showing up as "Trend Fatigued".
Of the NAS/QQQ: 29% as exhausted and the remainder as fatigued.

Looking deeper into it, price systems are becoming more chaotic (marked by random sells/volatility spikes) but the bullish structure remains intact.

For SPY and QQQ, the major support is coming from bullish structure and stable trend; however, Volume has plateaued (meaning no excited buying or selling, just stable flat volume). This translates to the grinding PA we are seeing.

Key takeways from this are:

1. Trend is not exhausted yet, still upside room;
2. Except volatility impulses with spikes down/perhaps bearish days that grind back up/rebound into next day;
3. PA will grind more than trend (i.e. Volume plateau);
4. Bias remains bullish... for now.


Safe trades as always!