$SPY to $264
Hello all.
Based on my analysis, we have strong resistance along the 45 degree fan angle((showing up as 60 degree angle on my chart as it does not adjust to my zoom, try clicking zoom out button twice so the bottom diagonal line aligns with first retracement and mar31st bar)). On top of this, we have seen tests around the $279 and may remain consolidating around that 0.5 Fibonacci area +- $6 (2%).
Market really has no reason to be rallying but expect to see slow uptrends with sharp dips (big money cashing out) complemented with higher volume.
There is noticeable decreased volume as prices inch higher giving me more reason to believe that this intermediate uptrend is losing steam. If
SPY can solidify a few more closes above these resistance points (especially surpass the 0.62 line) with stronger volume that will ultimately determine whether this is a corrective wave, or impulse wave (5-3-5-3-5). Any increased volume (on down sides) and solid head+shoulders pattern will confirm the downside at least short term.... to $264. I expect this to continue its trend down long term.
Divergences:
These divergences are not on the graph provided but I want to include them here (you can verify on your charts)
- I see Bearish regular divergence on 2H timeframe on the EMA ROC indicator (E1=8)(E2=21)
- DMI indicator. Although ADX is above 20, We can see some divergence on DI+ in relation to overall price action suggesting this may not be the specific time to short yet.
- MACD. We see a little bit (using 12, 26, signal length 9) of divergence Across the 1H timeframe, but fast wave is crossing slow wave indicating short term bullishness
Bullish Case: On clear uptrend, Multiple gap ups need to be filled, MACD fast wave crossing slow wave (1H), and market seems to go up with bad news+good news....
Neutral Case: Losing steam, less volume and more barriers to be broken. Should consolidate here for a few days as bulls/bears fight it out
Bearish Case: Increased divergences, losing momentum. More bad news/earnings releases and as of now. Zero cure for COVID with high probability of wave #2 + re-infection rates.
Conclusion: Short term, prices consolidate. Possible to go up a little bit more but shouldn't exceed +3% move of from where we are at now (closing prices). Given a few days have passed and a possible X2 top forms accross the 2H timeframe accompanied with increasing volume as we move down (refer to preferred MA), then Bears are winning. If a breakaway gap down occurs, bears should start salivating. Bears should look for strong price action sub-$270. Expect for price consolidation and eventual fall off the cliff with more retracements to come.
Hope you enjoyed my first TA on this site, Please like and comment any suggestions or praises as this is my first post and am looking to learn more.
Follow to see more!
Based on my analysis, we have strong resistance along the 45 degree fan angle((showing up as 60 degree angle on my chart as it does not adjust to my zoom, try clicking zoom out button twice so the bottom diagonal line aligns with first retracement and mar31st bar)). On top of this, we have seen tests around the $279 and may remain consolidating around that 0.5 Fibonacci area +- $6 (2%).
Market really has no reason to be rallying but expect to see slow uptrends with sharp dips (big money cashing out) complemented with higher volume.
There is noticeable decreased volume as prices inch higher giving me more reason to believe that this intermediate uptrend is losing steam. If
SPY can solidify a few more closes above these resistance points (especially surpass the 0.62 line) with stronger volume that will ultimately determine whether this is a corrective wave, or impulse wave (5-3-5-3-5). Any increased volume (on down sides) and solid head+shoulders pattern will confirm the downside at least short term.... to $264. I expect this to continue its trend down long term.Divergences:
These divergences are not on the graph provided but I want to include them here (you can verify on your charts)
- I see Bearish regular divergence on 2H timeframe on the EMA ROC indicator (E1=8)(E2=21)
- DMI indicator. Although ADX is above 20, We can see some divergence on DI+ in relation to overall price action suggesting this may not be the specific time to short yet.
- MACD. We see a little bit (using 12, 26, signal length 9) of divergence Across the 1H timeframe, but fast wave is crossing slow wave indicating short term bullishness
Bullish Case: On clear uptrend, Multiple gap ups need to be filled, MACD fast wave crossing slow wave (1H), and market seems to go up with bad news+good news....
Neutral Case: Losing steam, less volume and more barriers to be broken. Should consolidate here for a few days as bulls/bears fight it out
Bearish Case: Increased divergences, losing momentum. More bad news/earnings releases and as of now. Zero cure for COVID with high probability of wave #2 + re-infection rates.
Conclusion: Short term, prices consolidate. Possible to go up a little bit more but shouldn't exceed +3% move of from where we are at now (closing prices). Given a few days have passed and a possible X2 top forms accross the 2H timeframe accompanied with increasing volume as we move down (refer to preferred MA), then Bears are winning. If a breakaway gap down occurs, bears should start salivating. Bears should look for strong price action sub-$270. Expect for price consolidation and eventual fall off the cliff with more retracements to come.
Hope you enjoyed my first TA on this site, Please like and comment any suggestions or praises as this is my first post and am looking to learn more.
Follow to see more!
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