Is This the Perfect Short Entry in Sugar RAW? Check the Plan!

Sep 5

🏴‍☠️ Thief OG’s Sugar RAW CFD Money Making Plan 💰 (Swing/Day Trade)
Asset: SUGAR RAW Commodities CFD
Plan: Bearish Plan confirmed with 200 SMA rejection of bulls + seller pressure on the downside

⚡ Trade Setup – Thief Strategy Style
Entry: Use Thief layering strategy with multiple limit orders:
Example: 16.000 / 15.800 / 15.600 / 16.100
💡 You can increase limit layers based on your own plan.

Stop Loss: Thief SL @16.400 ❌
Adjust based on your strategy & risk appetite.

Target: Support + oversold + market reversal trap → Target @15.000 🎯
Note: Take profits at your discretion — “stolen money” is yours to keep 💵

🔍 Why This Plan? – Thief Technical + Macro Analysis (SEPTEMBER 05)
Thief Technical Plan:
Bearish trend confirmed via 200 SMA rejection 📉
Multiple layer entries to optimize risk/reward ⚡
Market traps and reversal zones accounted for 🕵️‍♂️

Fundamental & Macro Insights:
Fundamental Score: 6/10
✅ Record global production: 189.3M MT (Brazil & Thailand)
❌ Surplus of 7.5M MT pressuring prices
⚠️ Logistical bottlenecks & ethanol competition affecting supply

Macro Score: 5/10
📉 Weak global demand amid slowdown
🌎 Geopolitical tensions affecting trade flows
💵 Strong USD capping gains

Investor Sentiment:
Retail Traders: Bullish 45% 🐂 / Bearish 55% 🐻
Institutional Traders: Bullish 35% 🐂 / Bearish 65% 🐻

Fear & Greed Index:
Current Level: 40/100 😨 Neutral → slight fear
Mood: Cautious due to oversupply
Overall Market Outlook: Bearish 📉
Oversupply + weak demand + macro headwinds outweigh emerging market demand potential

🔗 Related Pairs to Watch:
$COFFEEUSD ☕
$COTTONUSD 🧵
SUGARUSD 🍬

“If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”

#SugarCFD #CommoditiesTrading #ThiefStrategy #BearishPlan #SwingTrade #DayTrade #CryptoCommodities #ForexCFD #MarketAnalysis #TradingViewIdeas #TraderOG

Sep 5

Trade active

Oct 12

Trade closed: target reached

🍬 Sugar CFD Live Report - Oct 12, 2025 (NYC Time) 🚀
Quick Price Snapshot 📈
Current: 16.34 USd/Lbs (up 0.13% today)
Monthly Gain: +3.16%
Yearly: Down 26% – Supply overload from Brazil/India keeps it grounded.
Stable range: Hovering 16-17 cents amid global surplus vibes.

🎯 Fundamental & Macro Score
Overall Score: 4/10 (Mildly Bearish 🐻)
Supply Surplus: +4.1 MMT global for 2025/26 – Brazil hits record 44.7 MMT output.
Demand Drag: Weak global appetite, plus health trends (GLP-1 drugs) cutting sugar use.
US Focus: Supply at 14.14M short tons; use steady at 12.17M – Stocks-to-use ratio at 16.2% (higher buffer, less squeeze).

🌾 Seasonal Tendencies
Current Vibe: Neutral-to-Bearish (Oct-Nov dip typical) ⚠️
Harvest peaks in Brazil/India flood market – Prices often slide 4-5% in Q4.
Holiday boost? Festive demand (e.g., Halloween/Christmas) adds ~15% sales lift, but surplus mutes it.
Watch: La Niña rains could trim late yields, but no big rally signal yet.

💰 Macro Backdrop (NYC Lens)
Interest Rates: Fed funds at 4.75-5% (easing hints for Dec) ⚖️ Neutral
Higher rates curb demand; cuts could spark mild lift.
Inflation: 2.9% (up from 2.7% in Jul) 🔥 Mild Bear
Sticky prices hit consumer sweets spending.
Economic Growth: GDP +1.7% projected for 2025 📉 Bearish
Slower pace = softer global demand.
Jobs Market: Unemployment 4.3% (up slightly) 👥 Neutral
Cooling hires mean less disposable income for treats.
Trader Note: Macro headwinds (tariffs + immigration slowdowns) weigh more on demand than supply – Keep eyes on Fed cuts for any green shoots.

🏦 Bank Orders & Institutional Activity
Signal: Bearish Tilt (Large Traders Net Short) 📉
CFTC Data (Latest Pre-Shutdown): Specs trimmed longs by 10K contracts; shorts up to 75K.
Producers hedging heavy: Reduced net shorts, but banks/institutions piling into shorts on surplus bets.
No fresh Oct reports (gov shutdown) – Activity shows caution, with focus on Brazil flows.
Key: Institutions eye oversupply; expect more short builds if yields hold strong.

😊 Trader Sentiment Outlook
Retail Traders: 35% Bullish / 55% Bearish / 10% Neutral 😟
(Crowd Signal: Fearful – Chasing dips, but health trends spook small players.)
Institutional Traders: 25% Bullish / 60% Bearish / 15% Neutral 📊
(Pro Signal: Cautious – Hedging surplus, light longs on yield risks.)
Overall Mood: Investors jittery on demand woes – 70% cite "supply glut" as top worry. X chatter: Mix of "bottom forming" hope vs. "weak demand trap."

😱 Fear & Greed Gauge
Sugar-Specific: 28/100 (Fear Zone) ⚠️
Volatility up on yield swings; momentum fading.
Broader Market (CNN Index): Neutral 45 – Stocks greedy, but commodities lag on macro fears.
Vibe: Oversold bounce possible, but greed needs demand spark to ignite.

📊 Overall Market Outlook
Bear (Short) Lean 🐻 (55% Odds)
Ample supply + soft demand = Downside pressure near-term. Neutral if yields disappoint; rare Bull flip only on major weather hit.
Pro Tip: As a trader, skip S/R noise – Focus on surplus data & Fed moves for clean entries. No rush; range trading wins here.