TSLA downside concept

Mar 23, 2021

First I think its important to acknowledge that I have not been in the market long - approx. 5 years of regular eyes on charts.
What I'm seeing in these past 2-3 weeks have been very atypical and feels a lot more like a dice roll than market conditions allowing for the capacity to analyze short/mid term trend (think 3-5 day swings etc.)

I'm not a scalper either, so this highly volatile environment with large intra-day ranges doesn't suit my trading preference.
However, we can't stop our practice so we try and make sense of what we can and still want to attempt to forecast trend whether that is on the chart or psychological patterns.

Which leads me to...

I get it. You see an inverse H&S. You see it, your mama sees it, so does your aunt.
Which is precisely why I assume that this widespread printing of IHS across tech will likely fail. Fail to reach the neckline altogether or a false-break reversal in a most brutal scenario.
So... If you are trading the IHS theory, please make sure you are setting up an appropriate trigger for entry and a stop loss strategy as well as target profits (and more likely given this volatile environment, a method of scaling out profits).

Personally the action of today across tech in my mind SHOULD lead to a continuation of selling. We've seen swift drops, unbalance in market inflow v outflow and has been flirting with heavy downward pressure. My personal expectation for 3/24 is a 2-3% down day across /nq and /es (yeah, that's a big shot call, I get that too.) I see TSLA following /nq (as it has proven to).

My sell target for TSLA is the box outlined at the bottom, with an absolute lowest target of the silver line in that high 300's territory. From there I'll part with any puts and nibble on call positions for the box at the top (with much more time expected)

Mar 23, 2021

Note

BTW,

for any curious on the significance of the top box, throw TSLA on the weekly candles, the box range corresponds to the top/bottom value of the 1/4 Weekly candle. Several inside weeks followed before ultimately breaking to the downside. This also supports the downtrend theory. The break of that box would have been the ideal entry for a put position if that's your thing.

Mar 24, 2021

Trade active

I mean... so far so good.
TSLA closed at the absolute low of day 630.27 for a daily loss (31.89, 4.82%)

closing at low of day and given how /es and particularly /nq played a similar story (let's not get too far into how stubborn and relatively decoupled /es was), I think it is a fair assumption we see some continuation tomorrow.

Mar 26, 2021

Note

do ya'lll feel that?
Tomorrow should be interesting.

Mar 30, 2021

Note

I mean zoom in as far as you need, about as perfect of a trendline touch as you can find.
I don't think this is the only touch we'll see, and can even retest that trendline as early as tomorrow (yes, I know that's a bit of a wild move, but since when has TSLA been averse to volatility?)

Also notice just in this frame (past 1 month approx) every similar upside move has been met with an immediate downside to either revisit lows, or close to.
Not saying a continuation isn't possible tomorrow - lord knows a lot of people want the optimism in the market - but I'm just saying if we are to try and gain a competitive edge through pattern recognition, tomorrow is not likely a sustained gain.

Mar 30, 2021

Note

Also worth noting - still have a gap to fill near 571.
They don't always have to fill, but they often do. Let's just rip off that band-aid.