Trade's Journey 1 |UPL| Equity
Updated
This is the beginning of a blog or rather a series of blogs which will track the trading journey from selecting trade to getting in, subsequent changes in position sizes (in any) and finally exiting, along with the rationale behind the same.
1. Pre-Trade
Price: UPL came to my notice on 10th May when priced went above the previous high, made in last month (7th April 2021). The closing price of 10th May and the high of 7th April were almost same (around 674). However, in closing basis 10th May was clearly a breakout. Previous closing high was 662 which was actually obtained a day prior i.e. 6th April 2021. In short then, on 10th of May we got a new 52 W high both on day's high as well as closing basis. Perhaps, a slight lingering issue in this regard was it failed to close definitely above the previous high's zone. That is had it closed say around 685 the signs would have been more obvious. Nevertheless, it was a 52 W breakout, period.
Also it should be noted the ATH price of 709 recorded on 1st July 2019 was within the range (around 5% higher from 674). Though truth be told, I didn't notice it at the time. Needless to say this was slightly sloppy while planning the trade.
Volume: The other aspect is of course volume. The volume on 10 of May wasn't anything spectacular but it was the highest in last couple of months time.
Results: The earning's date was around the corner (12 May 2021). It's always tricky with the earnings after all. However when the dust settled on 10th of May, that is when the market closed the signs were bullish.
Broader Sentiment: Despite, all this the main concern of course was, and still remains, the broader market. Globally the market's had been correcting through out the week.
2. Trade
Entry: On 12 May 2021, I entered at 685. The previous day i.e. on 11th the price has made fresh high with decent volume. And yet, luckily, it hadn't swelled up too much. So even in 12th May it provided good opportunity to get in. The Results were still not out though and it made sense not to be risk much. So got with 1x amount, keeping the decision of whether of scaling in or out for future.
Stoploss: I kept a initial stoploss at 5% below the entry price, which comes to 650 (rounded).
Target: If we check the chart we would see that 585 acted as a resistance and then as a support for several time earlier this year. Now if the previous high of 674 is taken as a new resistance point, then we have roughly 90 points transition zone or box. This comes to a 15% price movement. So the initial target could be either another 90 odd points or 15%. This comes to around 765 or slightly higher in percentage basis. So the first target can be around 760-775. Subsequent targets could be decided later.
Update 1: The very next trading day the price touched the targeted zone, high of 764, and closed at 743, having gained 7.5%. And this happened in a day when nifty closed in red. The volume for the day was highest this year so far. And hence, the trade looks fine as of now.
Trailing Stoploss: I am not updating the stoploss for now. Though it could be kept at price (685). I need to check the next two trading days before coming to a decision in this regard.
Will keep updating about the trade, as and when something significant happens. Meaning I change position sizes, exit, or any sudden change in price/volume, etc.
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This is not a trading/investing advice blog. This is my personal trading journal post and if you are reading it please see it from a purely analytical perspective.
Thanks for reading.
1. Pre-Trade
Price: UPL came to my notice on 10th May when priced went above the previous high, made in last month (7th April 2021). The closing price of 10th May and the high of 7th April were almost same (around 674). However, in closing basis 10th May was clearly a breakout. Previous closing high was 662 which was actually obtained a day prior i.e. 6th April 2021. In short then, on 10th of May we got a new 52 W high both on day's high as well as closing basis. Perhaps, a slight lingering issue in this regard was it failed to close definitely above the previous high's zone. That is had it closed say around 685 the signs would have been more obvious. Nevertheless, it was a 52 W breakout, period.
Also it should be noted the ATH price of 709 recorded on 1st July 2019 was within the range (around 5% higher from 674). Though truth be told, I didn't notice it at the time. Needless to say this was slightly sloppy while planning the trade.
Volume: The other aspect is of course volume. The volume on 10 of May wasn't anything spectacular but it was the highest in last couple of months time.
Results: The earning's date was around the corner (12 May 2021). It's always tricky with the earnings after all. However when the dust settled on 10th of May, that is when the market closed the signs were bullish.
Broader Sentiment: Despite, all this the main concern of course was, and still remains, the broader market. Globally the market's had been correcting through out the week.
2. Trade
Entry: On 12 May 2021, I entered at 685. The previous day i.e. on 11th the price has made fresh high with decent volume. And yet, luckily, it hadn't swelled up too much. So even in 12th May it provided good opportunity to get in. The Results were still not out though and it made sense not to be risk much. So got with 1x amount, keeping the decision of whether of scaling in or out for future.
Stoploss: I kept a initial stoploss at 5% below the entry price, which comes to 650 (rounded).
Target: If we check the chart we would see that 585 acted as a resistance and then as a support for several time earlier this year. Now if the previous high of 674 is taken as a new resistance point, then we have roughly 90 points transition zone or box. This comes to a 15% price movement. So the initial target could be either another 90 odd points or 15%. This comes to around 765 or slightly higher in percentage basis. So the first target can be around 760-775. Subsequent targets could be decided later.
Update 1: The very next trading day the price touched the targeted zone, high of 764, and closed at 743, having gained 7.5%. And this happened in a day when nifty closed in red. The volume for the day was highest this year so far. And hence, the trade looks fine as of now.
Trailing Stoploss: I am not updating the stoploss for now. Though it could be kept at price (685). I need to check the next two trading days before coming to a decision in this regard.
Will keep updating about the trade, as and when something significant happens. Meaning I change position sizes, exit, or any sudden change in price/volume, etc.
-----------------
This is not a trading/investing advice blog. This is my personal trading journal post and if you are reading it please see it from a purely analytical perspective.
Thanks for reading.
Comment
At 770 I have offloaded 50% amount. Now I am looking at two possible scenarios to again increase my position.
1) Price has remained within a relatively tight range for the last 3-4 trading days. This is overall a positive sign given that it had moved fast from 590 odd levels to 770. If I see further bullish signs in price and volume I will increase position.
2) But a more favourable approach will be to wait for a possible correction. Possibly halfway between 675 and 765, say around 720/725 level for re entry. Any such correction would be considered favorable only if volume is in the lower side.
Will update if I add more position.
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