Technical Analysis for US30 (Dow Jones)

Closing Price: 44,935.4 (16th Aug 2025, 12:50 PM UTC+4)

Analysis Methods: Japanese Candlesticks, Harmonic Patterns (ABCD, M/W), Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, Gann Theory (Time/Square of 9/Angles), Ichimoku, RSI, Bollinger Bands, VWAP, Moving Averages (MA/EMA/SMA/WMA).

1. Long-Term Trend (Weekly/Monthly)

Elliott Wave:

US30 is in Wave 5 of a bull cycle (Wave 3 peak: 45,500, Wave 4 correction to 42,800).
Target: 46,200–46,800 (1.618 extension of Wave 1).

Gann Price Forecasting:

Square of 9: √44,935.4 ≈ 212.00 →

Key resistance: 213² = 45,369, 214² = 45,796
Critical support: 211² = 44,521, 210² = 44,100
Break above 45,369 targets 46,000 (psychological level).

Ichimoku (Monthly):

Tenkan (9): 43,800 > Kijun (26): 43,200 → Bullish crossover.
Price above thick Senkou Span (42,500–43,000) – structural bullishness.

Moving Averages:

Weekly EMA(100): 43,000 (major trend support).
Swing Outlook: Bullish. Wave 5 targets 46,200–46,800.

2. Medium-Term Swing (4H/Daily)


Harmonic Patterns:

Bearish ABCD on Daily:

A: 45,200 → B: 44,300 → C: 44,900 → D: 45,050–45,150 (1.272 BC extension).
Bullish Crab (W Pattern) near 44,400 (0.886 XA retracement).

Wyckoff Phase:

Distribution above 44,900:

Upthrust rejection at 45,000 (16th Aug) on fading volume.
Weakness in rallies above 44,950.

Gann Theory:

Time Window: Aug 19–22 (Square of 9 reversal cluster).
Gann Angle: 1x1 support at 44,800 (45° angle from Aug 14 low).
Price-Time Squaring: 44,935 aligns with Aug 16 – consolidation expected.

Indicators:

RSI(14) + Bollinger Bands (Daily):

RSI: 65 (neutral-bullish, no divergence).
Price testing upper BB(20,2) at 45,050 → band expansion signals volatility.
VWAP (Weekly): 44,600 (swing support).

Swing Trade Setup:

Short near 45,050–45,150 → Target 44,500. Stop-loss: 45,300.
Long near 44,400 → Target 45,500. Stop-loss: 44,200.

3. Intraday Outlook (5M–4H)

Key Levels:

Resistance: 45,000 (psychological), 45,100 (Gann 1x1), 45,200 (ABCD target).
Support: 44,850 (VWAP), 44,750 (Ichimoku cloud), 44,600 (200-EMA).

Indicators:

Ichimoku (1H):

Tenkan: 44,920, Kijun: 44,860 → Price above both (short-term bullish).
Cloud: Bullish (44,780–44,840) – intraday support zone.

RSI + Bollinger Bands (4H):

RSI(14): 61 (neutral).
Price near mid-BB(20,2) at 44,900 → break below signals bearish momentum.

VWAP + MAs:

VWAP: 44,880 (intraday pivot).
EMA(20): 44,940 (resistance).

Candlestick Patterns:

4H Shooting Star at 45,000 → Bearish reversal signal.
1H Bearish Harami below 44,950 → Confirms selling pressure.

Gann Intraday Squaring:

Time Cycle: 14:00–16:00 UTC+4 (NY open) for volatility surge.
Price Harmony: Close below 44,900 targets 44,800 → 44,700.

Intraday Trade Plan:

Sell below 44,900 → Target 44,800 (VWAP) → 44,700 (Gann support).
Buy above 45,050 only if RSI <65 → Target 45,150.
Stop-Loss: 40–50 points.

Summary of Key Signals

Time Frame Bias Entry Target Stop-Loss
Intraday Bearish <44,900 44,880–44,900 44,700–44,800 45,000
Swing Bullish 44,400–44,450 45,200–45,500 44,200
Swing Bearish 45,050–45,100 44,500–44,600 45,300

Critical Events:

Gann Reversal Window: Aug 19–22 (watch for Fed minutes/retail data).
Daily Close >45,200 invalidates bearish patterns and targets 45,796.

Risk Note: US30 is sensitive to Dow components’ earnings and USD moves. Use tight stops during NY session.


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