USD/INR - Where the rupee is heading, Will it reach the 90s?

USDINR


Looking at the daily chart of USD/INR we can see a breakout at 86.68 level. And now there is a retracement from 87.95 levels. The question is whether it will make a new high or not, should we remain bullish on USD?

Let's refer the history to find a high probability answer.
From Oct'18 prices consolidation for 1.5 years. During this period there was cup and handle (C&H) formation followed by a breakout in Feb-20 @72.5 INR.
Note that the base of the handle was at 70.55 INR.



The momentum continued till 77 Rs in Apr-20.
If we draw a fibo extension from 70.55 to 77 (Δ 6.45), and apply it from the next C&H breakout at 77 Rs in May-22. The upmove followed this breakout made a high @ 83.285Rs. which is approx equal to (B/o pt + Δ) = (77+6.45 = 83.45).




Now Lets apply this concept to find the high of current bull run.

Let draw Fibo extension from base of the handle to top of the the entire run i.e from 75.288 to 83.285 (Δ ≈ 8)
And apply it from the B/o of C&H pattern @83.41 Rs.
So the next targets are {(B/o pt + Δ) = (83.41+8 = 91.41)} or {(B/o pt + 1.618*Δ) = (83.41+1.618*8 = 96.35)}