CUP & HANDLE ON THE CHART - IS BAJAJ FINSERV READY FOR LIFTOFF?Symbol - BAJAJFINSV
Bajaj Finserv Ltd. is a leading Indian financial services company engaged in insurance, lending, asset management, and wealth advisory. It operates through its subsidiaries like Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Allianz, making it a major player in the sector. The company is classified as a Systemically Important Non-Deposit taking NBFC.
Bajaj Finserv has recently shown a strong bullish breakout after forming a cup and handle pattern on the larger TF charts - A widely recognized bullish continuation setup. The breakout has occurred with notable volume, lending credibility to the move and signaling the potential for a sustained uptrend.
The stock is currently trading just above its breakout point, and a retest of the breakout zone 1980-2000 is possible. This area now acts as a strong support and provides an attractive entry opportunity for long positions.
Based on the technical pattern, the medium-term target for the move is projected at around 2450, implying an upside of nearly 22% from current levels. The pattern’s depth and the strength of the breakout support this target.
For risk management, a stop loss around 1800 is suggested, just below the handle's base, providing a good risk-to-reward setup.
The formation and breakout from the cup and handle pattern on a higher time frame adds strong bullish conviction to Bajaj Finserv’s chart. For investors looking to ride a medium-term trend with favorable risk-reward dynamics, this may be an opportune moment to enter or accumulate.
Disclaimer: The information provided here should not be construed as a buy or sell recommendation. It reflects my personal analysis and my trading position. Please consider this trading idea for educational purposes only. Thank you!
Cupandhandlepattern
MRPL is on bullish Reversal mode for 64% gain.MRPL:-
It is showing reversal from support level of 100. (100 is also a psychological level).
It forms Bullish engulf candle at fibbo level 78.6% which is sign of reversal.
This engulfs candle may convert soon in Inv. H&S pattern.
As per chart it may test minimum target of 230 soon which is 64% rise from here.
After cross and sustain above 150 it may take speed.
Bajaj Finserv Cup & Handle at Play! Will It Break Out?📌 Setup Overview:
Stock in a 4-year trading range 📊 and currently trading just below this range.
Cup and Handle formation ☕ along with a potential VCP setup (Volatility Contraction Pattern).
No left-side resistance—unlike stocks that fell 40-50%, there are fewer trapped buyers here.
Volume gradually increasing 📈, a necessary condition for a strong breakout.
Finance sector showing strength 💰—index is trading above key DMAs and broke out of a base first.
Stock is trading above key DMAs, adding technical confluence.
🎯 Trade Plan:
✅ Entry: Above ₹1,941 🔼
✅ Immediate Resistance: ₹2,035 (Watch Price Action at this level)
✅ Stop-Loss (SL - Closing Basis): ₹1,547.80 (20.29% below entry)
✅ Target (Tentative Positional): ₹2,510.30 🎯
📌 Risk-to-Reward (R:R) & Percentages:
SL Percentage: ~20.29%
Target Percentage (from ₹1,941): ~29.34%
R:R Ratio: 1:1.44
⚠️ Key Risks & Considerations:
1️⃣ Immediate Resistance at ₹2,035 – Monitor price action here. If rejected, wait for a re-entry after confirmation.
2️⃣ Deep Stop-Loss (~20%) – Adjust position sizing accordingly. Do not go all-in at once.
3️⃣ Market Structure: If broader markets remain weak, reassess if Bajaj Finserv is showing relative strength or struggling.
📌 Final Thoughts:
Wait for breakout confirmation above ₹1,941 with volume. 🚀
Monitor PA at ₹2,035—strong close above this strengthens the setup.
Stick to SL discipline and trail as stock moves higher.
📢 Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always manage risk and do your own research before making any trades.
🚀 Trade smart & stay disciplined!
RIDING THE WAVE - CUP & HANDLE BREAKOUT IN MANAPPURAM FINANCESymbol - MANAPPURAM
CMP - 234.16
Manappuram Finance is a Non-Banking Finance Company (NBFC), which provides a wide range of fund based and fee based services including gold loans, money exchange facilities, etc. The Company is a Systemically Important Non-Deposit taking NBFC.
Manappuram Finance Ltd. has recently demonstrated a significant bullish breakout, having formed a classic cup and handle pattern on a larger time frame and breaking out with strong volume. The cup and handle pattern is a well-regarded bullish breakout formation, and when it occurs on weekly or larger time frames, it tends to be highly reliable, indicating a robust upward momentum.
Currently, the stock price may retest the breakout zone, which coincides with the previous resistance area; now turned support - around the 230 to 217 range. This retest is a natural price action behavior and offers an attractive entry point for long positions before the stock continues its upward trajectory.
The target for this breakout, based on technical projections, is around 350, representing a 60% upside from the current market price. Given the strength of the breakout and the established pattern, this target appears achievable over the medium term.
For risk management, a stop loss can be placed around the 197 level, providing a reasonable cushion in case of a price reversal.
From a broader perspective, the formation of a cup and handle pattern coupled with a successful breakout on higher time frames adds a significant bullish bias to the stock. Investors looking for a favorable risk-to-reward setup may find this an opportune time to initiate or add to their positions in Manappuram Finance.
Disclaimer: The information provided here should not be construed as a buy or sell recommendation. It reflects my personal analysis and my trading position. Please consider this trading idea for educational purposes only. Thank you!
Identifying Winning Sectors Before the Big MoveIn this video, we dive deep into how to identify winning sectors before they make their big moves—with a real-world case study on the EMS (Electronic Manufacturing Services) sector.
You'll learn:
How to spot early signs of sector strength using price action and volume.
Why the EMS sector is showing promising signs based on recent market behavior.
Whether you're a swing trader, positional investor, or just looking to sharpen your edge—this video will equip you with actionable insights to stay ahead of the curve.
⚠️ Important: Market conditions are getting better, Position size 20% per Trade. Protect Capital Always
⚠️ Important: Always Exit the trade before any Event.
⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk:Reward Ratio as 1:2, with this RR, you only need a 33% win rate to Breakeven.
✅Like and follow to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes.
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Happy learning with MMT. Cheers!🥂
#HDFCBANK - Potential Breakout / Keep in WL 📊 Script: HDFCBANK
Key highlights: 💡⚡
📈 Cup & Handel Break Out in Daily Time Frame.
📈 Price consolidation near Resistance
📈 Enter only if Volume spike is seen.
📈 One can go for Swing Trade.
BUY ONLY ABOVE 1838 DCB
⏱️ C.M.P 📑💰- 1806
🟢 Target 🎯🏆 – NA%
⚠️ Stoploss ☠️🚫 – NA%
️⚠️ Important: Market conditions are bad, Position size 20% per Trade. Protect Capital Always
⚠️ Important: Always Exit the trade before any Event.
⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk:Reward Ratio as 1:2, with this RR, you only need a 33% win rate to Breakeven.
✅Like and follow to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes.
Eat🍜 Sleep😴 TradingView📈 Repeat 🔁
Happy learning with MMT. Cheers!🥂
MphasisHello & welcome to this analysis
Stock could be forming a cup & handle pattern in the monthly time frame with the lower leg of the handle coming to an end.
2000 is an extremely important level for the stock in the short term, while it has loads of resistance between 2300-2800 on the upside as it attempts to complete the handle.
Overall weakness continues below 2000, else one could expect stock to rise steadily towards completion of the bullish pattern
#SHYAMMETL - Cup & Handel Break Out in Daily Time Frame. 📊 Script: SHYAMMETL
Key highlights: 💡⚡
📈 Cup & Handel Break Out in Daily Time Frame.
📈 Price consolidation near Resistance & gave a BO with Volume
📈 Volume spike seen.
📈 MACD Bounce
📈 RS making 52WH
📈 One can go for Swing Trade.
BUY ONLY ABOVE 915 DCB
⏱️ C.M.P 📑💰- 914
🟢 Target 🎯🏆 – 14%
⚠️ Stoploss ☠️🚫 – 7%
️⚠️ Important: Market conditions are getting better, Position size 50% per Trade. Protect Capital Always
⚠️ Important: Always Exit the trade before any Event.
⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk:Reward Ratio as 1:2, with this RR, you only need a 33% win rate to Breakeven.
✅Like and follow to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes.
Eat🍜 Sleep😴 TradingView📈 Repeat 🔁
Happy learning with MMT. Cheers!🥂
Godfrey Phillips India Limited - 1D - Breakout
Pattern: A cup and handle formation is visible, suggesting a potential breakout.
• Trendlines: Two white downward trendlines indicate previous resistance levels, with the price recently breaking above them.
• Breakout: The latest price action shows a breakout above resistance around ₹7,107, which could indicate a bullish move.
• Volume: The volume bars at the bottom show increasing volume, confirming the breakout.
Indicators:
• RSI (Relative Strength Index) Indicator (Bottom Panel):
• The red line (72.00) represents the RSI value.
• The yellow-green line (60.61) likely represents a moving average or signal line.
• The RSI above 70 suggests the stock is gaining relative strength and could be in an overbought zone.
Resistance Levels:
1. ₹7,100 - ₹7,150 (Breakout Zone) → The stock has recently broken above this resistance. A successful retest and hold above this level could confirm further upside.
2. ₹7,600 - ₹7,700 → Next key resistance from previous highs (potential target if the breakout sustains).
3. ₹8,000+ (All-Time High Zone) → If momentum continues, this could be a longer-term target.
Support Levels:
1. ₹6,800 - ₹6,850 (Breakout Retest Level) → If the price pulls back, this level should act as strong support.
2. ₹6,400 - ₹6,500 (Psychological & Trendline Support) → Below this is the next strong support from past price action and trendline.
3. ₹6,000 (Major Support Zone) → A breakdown below this could invalidate the bullish trend.
Bitcoin Weekly Analysis: Two Consolidation Phases Market Overview
Bitcoin is currently consolidating after reaching $108K, forming a cup and handle pattern on the weekly timeframe. This is the second major consolidation phase in BTC’s recent uptrend. The first phase, seen earlier in the cycle, led to a powerful breakout, and history could repeat if BTC clears FWB:88K –$90K.
BTC remains in a pre-breakout phase, and the coming weeks will determine whether it surges toward new all-time highs or undergoes a deeper correction.
Two Major Weekly Consolidation Phases
1st Consolidation Phase (July–Dec 2024):
BTC traded within a $56K–$72K range, forming the base of the cup.
Once BTC broke out of this range, it rallied straight to $108K, confirming a strong uptrend.
2nd Consolidation Phase (Feb–Present 2025):
BTC peaked at $108K and started a healthy retracement, forming the handle of the pattern.
It is now trading between $80K– FWB:88K , preparing for the next breakout.
This consolidation mirrors the first phase and could fuel another explosive move higher.
Technical Breakdown
1. Key Support & Resistance Levels
Support Zones:
$80K– GETTEX:82K → Short-term support; must hold to sustain bullish momentum.
$74K–$76K → If BTC drops lower, this zone should act as strong demand.
Resistance Zones:
FWB:88K –$90K → The breakout level; BTC needs to close above this to confirm bullish continuation.
$100K–$108K → Major resistance; if cleared, BTC enters price discovery mode.
2. Breakout Potential & Price Targets
A weekly close above $90K signals a confirmed breakout of the second consolidation phase.
Measured Move Target:
Short-Term: $108K retest.
Extended Target: $120K+ if bullish momentum continues.
3. Bearish Scenario & Invalidation
A failure to reclaim FWB:88K –$90K could lead to an extended consolidation.
A break below $80K weakens the cup and handle setup.
If BTC drops below $74K, we may see a retest of the $72K–$74K range before a renewed attempt to break out.
Final Take: Preparing for the Next Big Move
Bitcoin’s price action closely resembles its first consolidation phase, which resulted in a breakout to $108K. The current consolidation is setting up for another strong move, with FWB:88K –$90K acting as the key breakout zone.
If BTC follows the same pattern, we could see a powerful surge to $120K+ once resistance is cleared. However, failure to hold $80K may delay the breakout.
We should watch for a decisive weekly close above $90K as confirmation for the next major bullish leg!
ZEEL : Breakout Candidate#zeel #trendline #breakout #patterntrading #chartpattern #cupandhandlepattern #momentumtrade #swingtrade
Zeel : Swing Trade
>> Trendline Concept
>> Cup & Handle chart pattern visible
>> Moving Avg Concept also suggests Breakout of 50 EMA
>> Breakout point of Trendline / Chart Pattern & Moving Avg concept are all in confluence at same point. (Refer both charts)
>> Hence its a Breakout candidate, probability is higher
>> Upside potential is of 20-25% & Downside Potenial is 9-10%
>> So a good 1:2 Risk Reward Trade
Swing Traders can lock profit at 10% and keep Trailing
Please Boost, comment and follow us for more Learnings.
Note : Markets are still Tricky and can go either ways so don't be over aggressive while choosing & planning your Trades, Calculate your Position sizing as per the Risk Reward you see and most importantly don't go all in
Disc : Charts shared are for learning purpose only, not a Trade recommendation. Do your own research and consult your financial advisor before taking any position.
UPL Ltd - Cup & Handle Breakout Setup📊 Trade Plan:
Breakout Entry: Above ₹662 (With 4x-5x Volume Confirmation)
Stop Loss (SL - Closing Basis): ₹581.95
Target 1 (T1): ₹775
Target 2 (T2): ₹831
Current Price: ₹646
📈 Risk & Reward Calculation:
Risk to SL: ₹646 - ₹581.95 = ₹64.05 (9.91%)
Reward to T1: ₹775 - ₹662 = ₹113 (17.07%)
Reward to T2: ₹831 - ₹662 = ₹169 (25.53%)
Risk-Reward (R:R):
To T1: 1:1.72 ✅
To T2: 1:2.57 ✅
📊 Technical Highlights:
✅ Cup & Handle Formation: Classic bullish pattern with a potential breakout
✅ Trading Above Key DMAs: Supports bullish structure
✅ Sectoral Strength: Agrochemicals showing momentum, aiding UPL
✅ Volume Confirmation Needed: Avoid entry without 4x-5x volume spike
✅ Trading Against Trend: Trade light, no heavy positions
📉 Fundamental Concerns:
❌ ROE (-4.28%) & ROCE (3.29%) are poor: Indicates weak profitability
❌ High Debt & Low Efficiency: Capital allocation is not optimal
❌ Dividend Yield (0.15%) is Low: Not an income-generating stock
❌ Market Cap: ₹48,512 Cr – Large cap, but currently weak performance
🔎 Key Insight:
UPL's fundamentals are weak with low profitability (negative ROE) and poor return on capital (ROCE 3.29%), meaning the stock relies more on technical breakout rather than strong financial backing.
⚠️ Risks Involved:
❌ Breakout Failure Risk: If ₹662 is not sustained, stock may fall
❌ Sector Volatility: Agrochemicals are cyclical, demand-dependent
❌ Overall Market Weakness: If Nifty falls, UPL may struggle
❌ Fundamentally Weak: Not ideal for long-term holding
🚨 Disclaimer:
⚠️ This is not financial advice. Trade light and avoid heavy risk, as this setup goes against the long-term trend. Ensure proper risk management before entering. Volume confirmation is a must! 🚀
Shriram Finance – Potential Breakout or False Alarm?
Technical Overview 📈
✅ Uptrend intact – The stock has been taking support at a long-term trendline and briefly fell out during the correction. Now, it has reclaimed the trendline.
✅ Breakout from a Cup & Handle pattern – A bullish pattern indicating possible upside.
✅ Volume picking up – Still needs more confirmation for strength.
✅ Golden Crossover possible – If recent lows hold, further upside can trigger a 50 & 200 DMA crossover.
✅ Sector strength – The finance sector index is trading above key DMAs, showing resilience.
Fundamental Snapshot 💰
Revenue Growth: 📈 Increasing YoY
EPS Growth: 📈 Improving
Profit Growth: 🚀 23.4% CAGR over the last 5 years
Healthy Dividend Payout: 21.6%
Market Cap: ₹1,26,653 Cr
Stock P/E: 15.6
Book Value: ₹279
Dividend Yield: 1.34%
ROCE: 11.3% | ROE: 15.9%
Face Value: ₹2
⚠️ Risk Factors:
Low Interest Coverage Ratio
Market Volatility – Could still be forming Lower Highs - Lower Lows (LL-LH) structure.
Volume Needs to Improve for stronger confirmation.
(Source: Screener.in)
Risk-Reward Calculation 🎯
1️⃣ Early Entry (₹695.1)
Stop Loss (SL): ₹607 (-12.65%)
Target: ₹890.8 (+28.12%)
Risk-to-Reward (R:R) = 1:2.22 ✅
2️⃣ Safe Entry (₹732.35)
Stop Loss (SL): ₹607 (-17.08%)
Target: ₹890.8 (+21.7%)
Risk-to-Reward (R:R) = 1:1.27 ✅
💡 Conclusion:
Early Entry (1:2.22) offers a better reward potential but has a higher risk of pullback.
Safe Entry (1:1.27) is more conservative but offers a lower reward.
Conclusion & Trading Plan 🎯
🔹 No need to rush in! Gradual accumulation is a wiser approach at this stage.
🔹 Risk Management is Key! This could be a false breakout or a pullback trap. Wait for confirmation.
🔹 Volume confirmation is essential – Without strong volume, the move might fail.
📢 Educational Idea | Not a Trade Recommendation 📢
This setup is shared to alert traders of a potential winner once the market settles. Not all setups play out, and only 5-6 out of 10 might succeed. Hence, risk management and position sizing are key. 📉📊
📢 Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. It is NOT financial advice. All trades carry risk, and market conditions can change. Do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
PG ELECTROPLAST LTD (NSE: PGEL):Double Bottom & CNH📈 PG ELECTROPLAST LTD (NSE: PGEL) – Trade Setup & Analysis
🔹 Trend: Stock is in an uptrend, previously a cycle winner. Corrected significantly in the recent market fall but is now recovering and trading close to ATH.
🔹 Technical Highlights:
Trading above key DMAs ✅
Double bottom, VCP, and CNH formation (not textbook-perfect but forming)
Volume missing but RSI improving 📈
Price action near ATH to watch – a high-volume breakout could signal a strong move.
🔹 Key Levels:
Entry: ₹925.70
SL (Closing Basis): ₹705.25 🛑
ATH Resistance: ₹1,053.80
🔹 Market Structure:
LL-LH trend in the broader market, so caution advised ⚠️
Gradual accumulation suggested, wait for confirmation on breakout with volume.
Breakouts are prone to failure in weak markets – risk management is key.
🔹 Fundamentals:
Market Cap: ₹26,226 Cr
Stock P/E: 124 (High Valuation ⚠️)
Book Value: ₹40.5
Dividend Yield: 0.02%
ROCE: 18.7% | ROE: 18.9% ✅
Sales Improving YoY but OPM% needs improvement
EPS Improving, Profits Rising ✅
📌 Final Thoughts:
Monitor price action near ATH – strong volume breakout = potential buy.
Weak market structure means all setups carry a higher failure risk.
Company fundamentals are decent, but valuations are stretched.
🔍 Do your own research before committing capital. This is a potential mover but needs confirmation!
JSW Steel – A Different Perspective.📢 JSW Steel – A Different Perspective (Not a Trade Recommendation)
Let's talk about JSW Steel 🏗️ and why it's worth watching. More importantly, this post is to highlight why you should keep doing your homework even in a bear market 📉. If fear stops you from researching, you might miss the next big move!
🔍 Why This Stock is Interesting:
✅ Uptrend Since May 2022 – The stock has been in an ascending channel 📈, respecting the lower trendline.
✅ Higher Highs & Higher Lows (HH-HL) – The bullish structure remains intact.
✅ Trendline Breakout & Cup and Handle (CnH) Formation – A classic bullish signal ⚡.
✅ Relative Strength – While many stocks corrected 30-40%, JSW Steel held strong with just an 18% correction.
✅ Sector Strength – Metals broke out of consolidation, and if China rebounds, the spillover effect could benefit this sector.
✅ Above Key Moving Averages (DMAs) – Indicates positive momentum 📊.
⚠️ Risks Involved:
❌ The overall market is still weak 🛑.
❌ Bottom formation is uncertain – We might not have seen the final dip yet.
❌ Trading against the trend – Caution is needed when going against broader market sentiment.
🎯 Key Levels to Watch:
🔹 Support: ₹939 – Holding this level is crucial.
🔹 Break Below ₹879 – Could trigger further downside.
💡 Final Thoughts:
Add to your watchlist 📝 and consider accumulating gradually instead of going all in.
If the market falls further, most trades will go against you. Manage risk wisely!
Metals are cyclical – Timing matters ⏳.
📢 Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions!
BOSCH, SAMVARDHNA MOTHERSON & SONA BLWHello & welcome to this analysis
Auto ancillary stocks at strong support levels suggesting a bounce/reversal from current levels with them forming Bullish Harmonic Patterns in weekly time frame
BOSCH - Alt Shark
MOTHERSON - Alt Shark
SONACOM - Cypher
Today's candle were very strong, one can look to add on follow through confirmation or on pullback, the risk reward appears decent at current levels.
In the video I have suggested possible levels of resistance on upside along with negation levels on the downside for each case.
All the best
#CHOLAFIN - VCP / C&H BO in DTF📊 Script: CHOLAFIN
Key highlights: 💡⚡
📈 VCP in DTF
📈 BO with Volume
📈 MACD gave a Bounce
📈 Price consolidated for 85Days
📈 One can go for Swing Trade
⚠️ Over All Market condition is bad, Practice paper trading
🟢 If you have any questions regarding the setup, please feel free to leave your inquiries in the comments, and I will respond promptly.
BUY ONLY ABOVE 1435 DCB
⏱️ C.M.P 📑💰- 1433
🟢 Target 🎯🏆 – 6%
⚠️ Stoploss ☠️🚫 – 2.90%
⚠️ Important: Always Exit the trade before any Event.
⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk & Reward Ratio.
✅#Boost, #Like & #Follow to never miss a new idea! ✅
Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes.
Eat🍜 Sleep😴 TradingView📈 Repeat 🔁
Happy learning with MMT. Cheers!🥂
Cords Cables-Can it continue to be a multibagger?Cords Cables is a small cap company which is available at a perfect position technically.
Zone of 140-150 was a supply zone earlier which now should become a demand zone.
If stock manages to bounce from here with good volumes, it can continue its multibagger journey towards big targets.
However, if this zone is breached, stock can fall rapidly so it sis make or break level for stock technically.
Very risky. Keep in watchlist to study and learn.
Not a recommendation.
Senores Pharma: Cup & Handle - Ready for Some Action?NSE:SENORES
Senores Pharma is forming a potential cup and handle on the daily timeframe. A breakout attempt on Feb 6, 2025, failed to sustain above ₹607.35 as selling pressure came in second half.
Now, the cup and handle pattern is progressing, making next week crucial. A close above ₹607.35 is the key level to watch for confirmation.
Volumes are rising, with today's volume (Feb 21, 2025) nearly 5x yesterday's. The stock's resilience despite market pressure indicates strength.
Cup and Handle pattern usually don't disappoint so would be interesting to watch.
Senores Pharmaceuticals is a research-driven company focused on developing specialty pharmaceutical products for regulated markets. The company has shown impressive financial performance:
Recent Financials (Q3 FY25):
Net Sales: ₹106.4 crore (up 35% YoY from ₹78.7 crore in Q3 FY24)
QoQ Performance: Increased from ₹104.4 crore in Q2 FY25 (up 1.92%)
EBITDA: ₹29.1 crore (up 92% YoY)
PAT: ₹17.2 crore (up 142% YoY from ₹7.1 crore in Q3 FY24)
9MFY25 Performance:
Total Revenue: ₹288.1 crore (up 157% YoY from ₹112.1 crore in 9MFY24)
PAT: ₹40.7 crore (up 162% YoY)
Market Position : The stock has outperformed its sector and the broader Sensex, achieving consecutive gains over the past month and trading above multiple moving averages.
Future Projections : Management anticipates a top-line growth of 50%-60% for FY26, with plans to launch five new products in the current quarter.
Strategic Focus : Continued investment in R&D and infrastructure development is expected to enhance manufacturing capabilities and expand product offerings.
USD/INR - Where the rupee is heading, Will it reach the 90s?FX_IDC:USDINR
Looking at the daily chart of USD/INR we can see a breakout at 86.68 level. And now there is a retracement from 87.95 levels. The question is whether it will make a new high or not, should we remain bullish on USD?
Let's refer the history to find a high probability answer.
From Oct'18 prices consolidation for 1.5 years. During this period there was cup and handle (C&H) formation followed by a breakout in Feb-20 @72.5 INR.
Note that the base of the handle was at 70.55 INR.
The momentum continued till 77 Rs in Apr-20.
If we draw a fibo extension from 70.55 to 77 (Δ 6.45), and apply it from the next C&H breakout at 77 Rs in May-22. The upmove followed this breakout made a high @ 83.285Rs. which is approx equal to (B/o pt + Δ) = (77+6.45 = 83.45).
Now Lets apply this concept to find the high of current bull run.
Let draw Fibo extension from base of the handle to top of the the entire run i.e from 75.288 to 83.285 (Δ ≈ 8)
And apply it from the B/o of C&H pattern @83.41 Rs.
So the next targets are {(B/o pt + Δ) = (83.41+8 = 91.41)} or {(B/o pt + 1.618*Δ) = (83.41+1.618*8 = 96.35)}
Hindustan UnileverHello & welcome to this analysis
FMCG sector appears to be doing better then other sectors after a very long time with Hindustan Unilever having a large weightage in the sector
Strength signal -
Since 2008 it has never violated the Quarterly Ichimoku Base line nor the Monthly Ichimoku Cloud. Near these support levels it becomes a very attractive value buy. This time also in 2024 it did the same.
After giving a Cup & Handle breakout in the weekly time frame its seen a pullback since October 2024 along with the rest of the market. In the last 3 weeks its gone sideways whereas we have seen other sectors continue to see sharp selling. Once again highlighting that current level is seeing consistent buying support. The pullback appears to have been completed as it bounced back from its rising trend line.
A daily falling wedge breakout has also witnessed a pullback now. As long as it now holds the rising trendline at 2350 it has good potential for upside suggesting a decent low risk high reward set up from short to medium term.
Upside levels one can look out for above 2400 are at 2700 / 3100 / 3300 / 3600
All the best for your trading and investing
My last video on the stock link is shared
Redington Ltd – CNH & Inverse H&S Trade with Caution!🚀 Pattern Highlights
Cup and Handle & Inverse Head and Shoulders:
Redington is showing a potential Cup and Handle (CNH) formation alongside an Inverse Head and Shoulders, signaling a breakout at ₹238–₹240.
📊 Technical Levels
Entry: ₹238–₹240 (Breakout Level)
Stop Loss: ₹181 (24% below, on a daily closing basis)
Target: ₹340 (~42% upside, positional/medium-term)
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:1.75
🕵️♂️ Observations
1️⃣ The stock is trading within an ascending channel, forming higher lows.
2️⃣ It's below its 52-week high but not correcting much during this bearish phase.
3️⃣ The channel top may act as a key resistance.
4️⃣ Still in Higher High (HH) and Higher Low (HL) format while many other stocks have transitioned to Lower High (LH) and Lower Low (LL) structures.
5️⃣ Volume confirmation will be crucial for a breakout.
⚠️ Risks to Consider
Market Sentiment: Current market conditions are bearish, with indices correcting and most sectors showing weakness.
Bearish Transition?: No confirmation if this is a bull market correction or the start of a bear market.
Earnings Season: Quarterly results are around the corner, which could bring surprises.
📌 Why Risk Management Is Key
Example: Newgen Software recently broke out at ₹1,548 (ATH), moved ~15%, but then plunged 41% in just 9 trading sessions, trapping bulls.
Solution: Trade light with 7–10% of your usual position size (e.g., buy 7 shares if you usually buy 100). This limits risk while keeping you involved.
🏁 Conclusion
Trade cautiously: Position size, risk management, and patience are your best tools here.
If the stock doesn’t fall further, it could be an ideal candidate when the market reverses and bottoms out.
For Beginners: Avoid this trade for now. Add it to your watchlist and observe.
✨ Final Thoughts
Redington is trading tightly above its key DMAs with narrow-range candles. This indicates strength despite market weakness. Watch closely for a breakout confirmation.
🔍 Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. Do your own research (DYOR) and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Trading involves risks, and capital is at stake. This idea is shared for educational purposes only.