Potentially tradable price action on USD/JPY
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
April and May were pretty uneventful, with June also wrapping up indecisively in the shape of a neutral doji candlestick pattern.
Areas outside of the noted triangle can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Demand at 105.70/106.66 remains in focus on the daily timeframe this week. Although a reasonably hardwearing zone since early May, buyers appear to be lacking spirit. The previous reaction on June 23, as you can see, failed to reach the 200-day simple moving average at 108.36 before rotating lower, emphasising buyer weakness.
Moves below current demand re-opens the risk of a return to support at 105.01.
H4 timeframe:
Recent developments on the H4 timeframe reveal price movement is essentially consolidating between supply at 107.60/107.42 and demand coming in from 106.39/106.64. Traders will also note the latter comes with a 161.8% Fib ext. point at 106.67 and is situated within the upper boundary of daily demand from 105.70/106.66.
Outside of the aforesaid range, peaks around 107.77 and the 108.09 level represents resistance, while through demand we can see support at 105.99.
H1 timeframe:
US trading Friday witnessed USD/JPY test trendline resistance (prior support – 106.66) and squeeze through the 100-period simple moving average. This left the pathway clear for 107, which, despite a mild whipsaw to lows at 106.94, held into the week’s end.
Under 107, 106.70 support resides close by, whereas a healthy bid in early trade this week may take the currency pair to supply at 107.24/107.16.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
Monthly price is somewhat directionless at the moment, caught within a descending triangle pattern.
Daily demand at 105.70/106.66 recently re-joined the fight, albeit echoing a fragile tone.
Short term:
Supply at 107.60/107.42 and demand from 106.39/106.64 on the H4 are likely on the radar this week, particularly the latter owing to the confluence it brings to the table.
Friday’s whipsaw below 107 was potentially a painful ordeal for intraday buyers, a move which likely tripped protective stop loss orders. The close back above 107 may draw in early buyers this week, targeting at least H1 supply at 107.24/107.16 (strong supply), followed by the lower ledge of H4 supply at 107.42.
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
April and May were pretty uneventful, with June also wrapping up indecisively in the shape of a neutral doji candlestick pattern.
Areas outside of the noted triangle can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
Demand at 105.70/106.66 remains in focus on the daily timeframe this week. Although a reasonably hardwearing zone since early May, buyers appear to be lacking spirit. The previous reaction on June 23, as you can see, failed to reach the 200-day simple moving average at 108.36 before rotating lower, emphasising buyer weakness.
Moves below current demand re-opens the risk of a return to support at 105.01.
H4 timeframe:
Recent developments on the H4 timeframe reveal price movement is essentially consolidating between supply at 107.60/107.42 and demand coming in from 106.39/106.64. Traders will also note the latter comes with a 161.8% Fib ext. point at 106.67 and is situated within the upper boundary of daily demand from 105.70/106.66.
Outside of the aforesaid range, peaks around 107.77 and the 108.09 level represents resistance, while through demand we can see support at 105.99.
H1 timeframe:
US trading Friday witnessed USD/JPY test trendline resistance (prior support – 106.66) and squeeze through the 100-period simple moving average. This left the pathway clear for 107, which, despite a mild whipsaw to lows at 106.94, held into the week’s end.
Under 107, 106.70 support resides close by, whereas a healthy bid in early trade this week may take the currency pair to supply at 107.24/107.16.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
Monthly price is somewhat directionless at the moment, caught within a descending triangle pattern.
Daily demand at 105.70/106.66 recently re-joined the fight, albeit echoing a fragile tone.
Short term:
Supply at 107.60/107.42 and demand from 106.39/106.64 on the H4 are likely on the radar this week, particularly the latter owing to the confluence it brings to the table.
Friday’s whipsaw below 107 was potentially a painful ordeal for intraday buyers, a move which likely tripped protective stop loss orders. The close back above 107 may draw in early buyers this week, targeting at least H1 supply at 107.24/107.16 (strong supply), followed by the lower ledge of H4 supply at 107.42.
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