So we have retraced nearly all of last Thursday's big drop down only taking a couple of days to retrace back up. Looking at the 4hr charts we can clearly see the markets are moving sideways depending what your bias is you could see this movement as a re-accumulation phase basically a pause in the uptrend before making new highs or....
You could see this as a Distribution phase which is what happens after a huge move up and is the market preparing for a move down personally this is how I am seeing the market given the fact that we are extremely overbought on all the higher timeframes and had intervention at this level last week. Also if you notice the DXY has been on fire again this week printing new highs whilst the USDJPY has just been grinding indicates we are ready for a drop.
I am waiting for my indicator to give me a Daily SELL signal at the current levels and I will enter this market.
The 4hr chart is already giving me SELL signals meaning this trade may happen soon the STOP LOSS will be well above last weeks high and will target around the 139 previous HIGH or lower.
Obiviously given the current markets and the strength of the DOLLAR we could blow higher though only a clean break and DAILY close above 145 will confirm more upside though any increased volitility to the upside iss likely to cause more intervention by the Japanese.
We are very near if not at the top of this market if we do move up from here it will not be too far likely hitting 147.5 let's see for me the best longterm R/R on this pair is positioning into a SELL let's see what happens
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