Tether (USDT) Dominance: Full Analysis (Weekly Timeframe)

Oct 4

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, we have an interesting chart here.

At first, I opened USDT.D on the daily timeframe and immediately thought that it was bearish, that's the first impression that I received when looking at the chart, after a few seconds it became mixed.

I then switched to the weekly timeframe and patterns changed completely. Plotting the moving averages surely added another dimension.

Let's review this chart together and see what it has to say.

My name is Alan, and it is always my pleasure to write for you.

The Tether Dominance index chart (USDT.D) has been bullish forever, it was always growing until June 2022 when it peaked and started to move sideways with bearish tendencies. Sideways while producing lower highs.

A lower high in November 2022, another lower high in June 2023, then again in September 2023 and finally a crash. The crash ended in a major low in March 2024. The exact same date that USDT.D bottomed, Bitcoin peaked.

The level at which it bottomed, one session and on a wick, which is a signal of strength, is the same level that produced the last up-move before the June 2022 peak.

This level is super strong and worked for consolidation between January and March 2022. Now it worked as support in March 2024.

Tether Dominance moved below MA200, and this produced the climax of the crash. Slowly but surely it recovered above MA200.

The crash led almost to the test of EMA377 but prices bounced before reaching this level, a signal of strength.

After the March 2024 support was hit, a perfect ascending channel develop, truly perfect. After a peak in August and lower high in September, we saw a three weeks correction pushing the index to retest MA200 as support. It closed below MA200 but this week moved back above this level right away.

Today, USDT.D trades above MA200 within an ascending channel, perfect higher highs and higher lows with a bullish bias.

➖ If this index were to move below 5.21%, it would be easy to see it lower and extremely bearish, with plenty of room to move down. But as long as the index trades above 5.38%, on the other hand, it is super bullish and set to continue higher.

Since the bounce in March 2024, there has never been three consecutive weeks closing red until last week. Always after two weeks red, there would be some bullish action. We saw three weeks red, which means an over-extended move, and right after, a strong green candle.

This is surely an interesting and crucial point, a wait and see moment but the chart is 100% clear.

The chart has been rising for almost seven months printing a perfect rising channel. It moved below a very strong long-term support level just to quickly bounce back above it. While we can have doubts as to what will actually happen next, the chart is saying that the bulls have the upper hand and the index will continue to grow in the coming weeks.

There are two ways that these bullish signals can become invalid:

1) Short-term. The index moves and closes a full candle below 5.21%. This would break MA200 and the perfect rising channel.

2) Long-term. The index moves and closes weekly below 4.67%. This would break the rising channel irrevocably, in a way that a new one cannot be drawn and thus the rising trend is invalidated. This would be equivalent with Bitcoin moving and closing above 71K.

Thank you for reading.

Your support is appreciated.

Namaste.