Right, I'm calling it! 😁💥

Jan 31

Overview
I'm calling 2024 the end of Lira selling.

The Details

• 2024 could see Turkish inflation peak🗻
  
• The main driving force of the TRY selling has been unconventional monetary policy, erratic changes of the head of Turkey's central bank and finance ministers, and undisciplined high inflation
  
• A rate hiking cycle has been in play since May 2023 - rates hiking from 8.50% to 45.00% - and conventional monetary policy seems to have finally arrived😅
  
• Erodgan seems more committed to tackling inflation and having central bank stability
  

Things to consider

• I am not suggesting that Turkey is on the verge of a boom, though I am not ruling this out; inflation could be peaking, so the Lira may finally see strength. This will create an all-time high on the TRY charts.
  
• I suggest that the aggressive uptrend could be coming to an end, even if that means TRY pairs start ranging.
  
• The carry trade makes this an irresistible opportunity for me. I have been long TRYJPY since June 2023, which has resulted in generous daily swap payments💰