USD Under Pressure: Impact Retail Sales and Trade Tensions

The U.S. dollar faces another challenging session, with the DXY index dropping 0.4% in the end-of-week session and posting a weekly decline of 1.4%, bringing the greenback to levels unseen since early December. This performance is largely attributed to disappointing January retail sales data and trade tensions stemming from the potential implementation of more “meticulous” tariffs than initially expected, some of which may not take effect until April.

Retail sales, one of the key indicators of U.S. consumer strength, fell 0.9% month-over-month in January, significantly below the -0.1% expected by analysts. This marks the sharpest contraction since March 2023, reflecting the impact of adverse weather conditions and specific factors such as the Los Angeles wildfires. Sectors such as sporting goods, vehicles and parts, and e-commerce experienced the largest declines. This deterioration in domestic demand is further reinforced by the drop in “core” sales for GDP calculations—which exclude food, automobiles, building materials, and gasoline—coming in at -0.8%.

In terms of monetary policy, this data supports the likelihood of a second rate cut in 2025. Futures markets are now pricing in approximately 38 basis points of easing before year-end, a notable adjustment from the 26 basis points anticipated just the day before. The scale of this market revision reflects the relative shift in the economic outlook following weak consumer data. Naturally, this expectation of lower returns on dollar-denominated assets, with the U.S. Treasury yield falling 6 basis points to 4.47%, exerts downward pressure on the U.S. currency.

Looking at the short- and medium-term outlook, the dollar’s performance will continue to be shaped by the evolution of trade tensions. The recent executive order signed by President Donald Trump includes the adoption of “reciprocal tariffs”, though the final scope of these measures remains uncertain. If the administration continues to adopt a “surgical” approach to counter what it considers unfair trade imbalances, the market may find further reasons to dismiss the scenario of a stronger greenback. Should this bearish trend for the USD persist, the next key level for the DXY index is around 105. The dollar’s trajectory will depend both on expectations for additional Fed rate cuts and tariff decisions, both of which will be critical in shaping the next few months.

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