Key Developments
US labor market revisions: BLS cut payrolls by -911k through March 2025, implying weaker labor conditions than thought. Markets took it in stride, with rate cut pricing steady at ~27bps for next week (-1.5bps on day).
Fed outlook: Treasury Secretary Bessent urged recalibration of policy, echoing Trump’s criticism of “choking off growth.” Governor Lisa Cook remains in her role after a court blocked Trump’s attempt to remove her, ensuring full FOMC participation next week.
Geopolitics:
Middle East: Israel’s strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar drew criticism from Trump, seen as not aiding conflict resolution.
Europe: Poland shot down drones from a Russian strike on Ukraine, escalating tensions with Moscow.
Market Takeaways
Payroll downgrades confirm a weaker labor backdrop but don’t materially change Fed cut expectations for September.
Political noise around the Fed could fuel uncertainty, but markets are treating it as background risk.
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated but had limited immediate market impact.
Conclusion for Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq 100 is likely to remain steady to slightly supported:
Weaker labor revisions reduce concerns about overheating, reinforcing the Fed cut narrative.
Limited geopolitical spillover into tech equities so far.
Bond yields and Fed pricing, not payroll revisions, remain the key driver.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 24200
Resistance Level 2: 24380
Resistance Level 3: 24600
Support Level 1: 23500
Support Level 2: 23320
Support Level 3: 23125
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US labor market revisions: BLS cut payrolls by -911k through March 2025, implying weaker labor conditions than thought. Markets took it in stride, with rate cut pricing steady at ~27bps for next week (-1.5bps on day).
Fed outlook: Treasury Secretary Bessent urged recalibration of policy, echoing Trump’s criticism of “choking off growth.” Governor Lisa Cook remains in her role after a court blocked Trump’s attempt to remove her, ensuring full FOMC participation next week.
Geopolitics:
Middle East: Israel’s strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar drew criticism from Trump, seen as not aiding conflict resolution.
Europe: Poland shot down drones from a Russian strike on Ukraine, escalating tensions with Moscow.
Market Takeaways
Payroll downgrades confirm a weaker labor backdrop but don’t materially change Fed cut expectations for September.
Political noise around the Fed could fuel uncertainty, but markets are treating it as background risk.
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated but had limited immediate market impact.
Conclusion for Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq 100 is likely to remain steady to slightly supported:
Weaker labor revisions reduce concerns about overheating, reinforcing the Fed cut narrative.
Limited geopolitical spillover into tech equities so far.
Bond yields and Fed pricing, not payroll revisions, remain the key driver.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 24200
Resistance Level 2: 24380
Resistance Level 3: 24600
Support Level 1: 23500
Support Level 2: 23320
Support Level 3: 23125
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.