Anticyclical VIX Futures Trade – Calendar Spread

VIX has drifted into complacency territory with stretched short positioning, steep front-end contango, and seasonal factors lining up. Instead of outright longs, a VX1–VX2 Calendar Spread offers cleaner exposure to rising volatility and curve normalization.

Setup

• VIX near equilibrium range (12–15%), entering complacency.
• Futures curve in steep contango → negative carry on outright longs.
• Short positioning at multi-year highs, vulnerable to squeeze.
• Seasonality favors higher VIX.
• Index volatility suppressed, single stocks trading erratically.

Trade Idea

• Long VX1 / Short VX2 (multiplier = 100).
• Benefits from both rising volatility and front-end curve flattening.
• VX1 outperforms VX2 in a spike; VX2 cushions VX1 in grind-lower scenarios.

Entry Triggers

• VIX9D > VIX.
• VIX crossing EMA20/EMA50.
• RSI(14) on VIX > 50.
• SPX daily short setup.

Target

• Target zone to be reached before VX1 expiration.
• Target zone 1: VIX in range 20 - 22, target zone 2: VIX in range 28 – 30

Exit

• On VX1 expiry: VX1 converges to the VIX. VX2 becomes front month. If the position is left open, it effectively becomes a short front-month future and must be re-evaluated.
• Alternatively, close at VIX Index in specified target zone or discretionary, depending on SPX price action (i.e. SPX bouncing back after a dip).

Risk
• Do not over-leverage.