VNINDEX Outlook – Week 39/2025 (Next 5–10 Sessions)

VNINDEX Outlook – Week 39 (Next 5–10 Sessions)

Context
In Week 38, foreign investors kept selling heavily, focusing on Banks and Real Estate for six straight weeks, while domestic money rotated into Brokerage, some Real Estate and Industrials. With Fubon ETF’s rebalancing completed, near-term direction hinges mainly on liquidity: if it fails to improve, a sideways scenario remains the base case.

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📊 Sideways Case – “Box Trading with Sector Rotation” (≈45% probability)

Range
• VNINDEX 1,638–1,690
• VN30 1,845–1,885
• Low–medium liquidity; VN30F1 basis slightly negative

Approach
• Swing T+3/T+5 with 50–60% stocks, 40–50% cash
• Focus on sectors supported by domestic inflows:
• Real Estate: NVL, DIG, KDH, VRE, CII, CEO (buy near support, sell at box resistance)
• Brokerage: SSI, VND, VIX (range trading; prefer red candles for entries)
• Utilities: POW for medium-term/portfolio anchor
• Limit exposure to large Banks (VCB, BID, CTG, VPB, MBB) while VNFIN hasn’t regained trend; Steel (HPG) only for quick trades when NKG/HPG break short-term highs together

Rules
• Buy on support tests with low volume, sell near resistance when volume dries up
• Avoid chasing last-minute blue-chip pumps

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🚀 Bull Case – “Rebound from Support” (≈30% probability)

Triggers
• VNINDEX holds 1,648–1,652 (September box floor) with reduced volatility; liquidity > 32–35 trillion VND/session
• VN30 holds 1,850 and reclaims 1,868–1,885; VN30F1 basis narrows
• Foreign net selling drops sharply (≤ 500–800 billion/session) after ETF rebalance

Targets
• VNINDEX 1,678 → 1,695/1,705 (upper box retest)
• VN30 1,885 → 1,900

Strategy & Preferred Names
• Real Estate (rotation): NVL, DIG, KDH, VRE; infrastructure/industrial CII, CEO, QCG
• Entry on 3–5-day breakout with > 120% of 20-day average volume, or low-volume pullback to MA10/MA20; cut loss 5–7%
• Brokerage (beta & ETF): SSI, VND, VIX (ETF newcomer – high volatility; buy dips, don’t chase green)
• Defensive/Trend: POW; add BCG/GEX if industrial inflows appear
• Banks: selective STB, ACB (domestic prop buying), VCB (ETF adding); keep weights modest

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🐻 Bear Case – “Break Below Box, Test 1,620” (≈25% probability)

Confirmation
• VNINDEX closes < 1,648 with rising volume, VN30 < 1,850, VN30F1 basis < −12; foreign selling > 2 trillion/session

Targets
• VNINDEX 1,620–1,630 (next gap/support zone)

Action
• Cut exposure to 20–30%; keep POW and a few defensives; avoid large Banks/Steel/mega-cap Real Estate (VHM/VIC)
• Derivatives: only consider shorting VN30F1 when VN30 loses 1,850 with rising OI

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⏱ Execution Timing
• If early week VNINDEX holds 1,648–1,652 & VN30 > 1,850: can start opening 1/3 positions in Real Estate/Brokerage on hammer candles or 3-day breakouts; add more above 1,668–1,672
• If breaks 1,648 with volume: stop new buys, lower beta, hold POW & winners; wait for 1,620–1,630

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🧭 Allocation & Risk Management
• Base (Sideways 45%): 50–60% stocks (core Real Estate/Brokerage/POW), 40–50% cash
• Bull 30%: 70–80% stocks (increase Brokerage + Real Estate, keep POW), rotate fast
• Bear 25%: 20–30% stocks (POW + 1–2 strongest), rest cash; no averaging down

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🔎 Sector/Stock Strength Ratings (A = strongest → C = weakest)

Brokerage
• VIX (B+) – ETF buy-in, upside but high volatility; buy near support on red, take profit +5–8%
• SSI (B) – domestic/prop flows; trade 3–5-day range
• VND (B) – similar to SSI; don’t chase strong green

Real Estate
• NVL (B), DIG (B) – benefit from bank outflows; watch support retests
• KDH (B−) – steadier but narrower swings, better mid-term hold than quick trade
• VRE (B) – VN30 member, rebounds with group; buy on short-term breakout
• PDR (C) – ETF selling, near-term risk; observe only
• VHM/VIC (C) – heavy foreign selling; avoid chasing; only consider on reversal candle + big inflow

Banks (sector C) – VNFIN trend weak; if must: STB, ACB (B−) for rebounds; VCB (C+) watch post-ETF rebalance; VPB, MBB (C) under foreign pressure

Steel/Materials
• HPG (C) – being sold; only scalp if group turns up
• NKG (B−) – relatively stronger; buy only on group breakout

Industrial/Infrastructure
• GEX (B−), CII (B) – active volume, suitable for swing; respect 5–7% stops

Utilities/Defensive
• POW (A−) – steady trend; can anchor portfolio under all scenarios

Others
• FPT (B−) – quality but profit-taking by institutions; buy on pullback/low volume
• HVN (B−) – short-term foreign buying but high risk; only for quick trades